Ride Hailing Take Rate Risks Will Challenge Margins Yet Long Term Mobility Demand Should Persist

Catalysts

About Marti Technologies

Marti Technologies operates a leading mobility super app in Turkiye, combining ride-hailing and shared electric vehicles on a single platform.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• While the shift from two-wheeled rentals to ride-hailing taps into a structurally larger addressable market across Turkiye's major cities, the decision to delay monetization in six newly launched metropolitan areas could slow near-term revenue realization and lengthen the path to positive earnings.
• Although accelerating adoption of app-based transportation in underpenetrated secondary cities expands long-term ride volume potential, lower purchasing power outside Istanbul may cap average fares and constrain future revenue growth and net margins.
• While dynamic pricing and AI-driven marketplace optimization should support higher take rates over time, missteps in calibrating these tools as take rates rise from high single digits toward global benchmarks risk driver churn and weaker contribution margins.
• Although multimodal usage within the super app meaningfully increases rides and revenue per rider, continued decommissioning of the two-wheeled fleet may weaken this low-cost acquisition funnel and pressure revenue growth efficiency and marketing-driven earnings leverage.
• While Marti's current market leadership and first-mover advantage position it to benefit from the long-term transition away from legacy taxis, future regulatory frameworks for ride-hailing and autonomous vehicles could impose higher compliance costs and compress net margins.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on Marti Technologies compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bearish analysts are assuming Marti Technologies's revenue will grow by 92.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bearish analysts are not forecasting that Marti Technologies will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Marti Technologies's profit margin will increase from -290.1% to the average US Transportation industry of 5.2% in 3 years.
• If Marti Technologies's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $9.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.11) by about December 2028, up from $-71.3 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $24.1 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-38.3 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 42.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Transportation industry at 31.8x.
• The bearish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.83% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 16.55%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The strategy of delaying monetization in six newly launched metropolitan areas while rapidly scaling headcount and organizational complexity could result in structurally higher fixed costs without sufficient pricing power in secondary cities. This could put long term pressure on revenue growth conversion into sustainable earnings and net margins.
• Marti is explicitly relying on materially increasing ride hailing take rates from the current high single digits toward global benchmarks of about thirty percent in a market with lower purchasing power. This raises the risk that future price and take rate hikes trigger rider and driver churn, which would undermine revenue growth and compress contribution margins and earnings.
• The gradual decommissioning of the two wheeled electric vehicle fleet to reallocate resources to ride hailing may erode a proven, low cost customer acquisition funnel and weaken multi modal network effects over time. This could slow new rider growth, reduce rides per rider and ultimately cap revenue per rider and gross margins.
• Marti’s long term plan assumes that ride hailing will remain the dominant mobility solution in Turkiye. Faster than expected adoption of autonomous vehicles or new tech enabled competitors with strong capital backing could reset industry economics and depress achievable take rates, limiting long term revenue scale and future earnings potential.
• The decision to diversify non operating cash into Bitcoin as a store of value introduces additional balance sheet volatility in a business that is still loss making and dependent on external financing. This could amplify swings in reported earnings and constrain flexibility to fund growth during adverse crypto or currency cycles.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bearish price target for Marti Technologies is $3.0, which represents up to two standard deviations below the consensus price target of $4.8. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Marti Technologies's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $6.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $3.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bearish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $174.7 million, earnings will come to $9.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 42.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 16.6%.
  
• Given the current share price of $2.4, the analyst price target of $3.0 is 20.0% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.