Multi City Expansion And Super App Network Effects Will Drive Long Term Earnings Power

Catalysts

About Marti Technologies

Marti Technologies operates a mobility super app in Türkiye that combines ride hailing for cars, motorcycles and taxis with owned e-bike, e-scooter and e-moped rentals.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Early monetization of ride hailing alongside a high single digit take rate, while management references global benchmarks of a 30% take rate on an estimated US$10b gross booking pool, gives the company room to adjust pricing levers that could lift revenue and support earnings over time.
• Rapid scaling of the marketplace, with unique ride hailing riders moving from 1.1 million to 2.3 million and registered drivers from 171,000 to 327,000 in the first half of 2025, points to stronger network effects that can support higher utilization and potentially better net margins.
• Expansion from 4 to 10 cities that together represent about half of Türkiye's population and nearly two thirds of its GDP increases the addressable demand for app based transportation, which can feed into higher trip volumes and revenue as these newer cities mature.
• Multi modal behavior, where multi service riders generate 3 times more rides and 2.7 times more revenue per rider than single service users, suggests that the super app structure can lift average revenue per user and improve earnings contribution per customer.
• Operational and technology upgrades, including AI driven pricing and matching, a redesigned app that has a 4.9 out of 5 rating, and efficiency programs that reduced cost of revenues by 25% alongside a 49% gross margin improvement, provide levers that can support both revenue quality and net margin progression.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Marti Technologies compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bullish analysts are assuming Marti Technologies's revenue will grow by 115.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -290.1% today to 14.4% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $35.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.47) by about January 2029, up from $-71.3 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $-41.3 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.2x on those 2029 earnings, up from -2.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Transportation industry at 31.9x.
• The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.83% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 16.87%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Ride hailing take rates are currently in the high single digits versus the 30% level management uses as a global benchmark, and the company is intentionally keeping take rates low to prioritize growth. If competitive pressure emerges or demand proves less inelastic than expected, Marti may struggle to lift take rates without hurting trip volumes, which could limit revenue growth and delay the path to positive earnings.
• The expansion into 6 new metropolitan areas through 2025 comes with a decision not to monetize those new cities this year, while the ride hailing team is planned to increase from about 120 to around 260 people. If rider adoption, frequency and retention in these newer cities do not reach the levels implied by management’s long term market sizing, fixed and operating costs could outpace revenue and weigh on net margins and EBITDA.
• Marti is gradually decommissioning part of its 2 wheeled electric vehicle fleet, yet management still views e bikes, e scooters and e mopeds as integral because multi modal riders generate 3x more rides and 2.7x more revenue per rider. If long term secular shifts in urban transport, regulation or consumer preferences reduce demand for these vehicles, that could weaken this internal acquisition funnel and lower revenue per rider and overall earnings potential.
• The company’s crypto treasury approach involves holding a portion of non operating “rainy day” cash in Bitcoin instead of keeping it entirely in U.S. dollars. While management views selected crypto assets as a store of value, long term volatility or adverse regulation around crypto could erode this buffer and reduce financial flexibility, which may in turn constrain reinvestment in growth and put pressure on future earnings and cash flow.
• Management is investing heavily in AI based pricing, matching and new organizational teams while operating in a country where ride hailing fares and purchasing power are lower than markets like the U.S. If these technology and headcount investments do not produce sustained improvements in monetization, rider and driver engagement or cost efficiency, operating expenses could remain high relative to revenue and keep net margins and adjusted EBITDA in loss making territory.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bullish price target for Marti Technologies is $6.0, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $5.0. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Marti Technologies's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $6.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $3.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $246.0 million, earnings will come to $35.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 16.9%.
  
• Given the current share price of $2.11, the analyst price target of $6.0 is 64.8% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.