United Parcel Service

Amazon Shipments Will Decline And Automation Will Secure Future Efficiency

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

06 Aug 24

Updated

18 Oct 25

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-21.6%

7D

6.4%

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1Y

-21.6%

7D

6.4%

You can edit this narrative until Oct 19 3:10 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$100.50.4% overvalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 18 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 0.92%

Analysts have lowered their price target for United Parcel Service, reducing it from approximately $101.43 to $100.50 per share. They cited persistent cost pressures and a cautious outlook for freight demand stabilization.

Shared on 04 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 1.81%

The analyst price target for United Parcel Service was reduced to approximately $101.43 from $103.30, as analysts cited sustained cost pressures, weaker volume trends, and ongoing macroeconomic and regulatory challenges. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a broad reassessment of United Parcel Service's outlook as analysts evaluate both the company's near-term challenges and longer-term positioning.

Shared on 19 Sep 25

Fair value Decreased 1.05%

Analysts have modestly reduced United Parcel Service’s price target to $103.30 due to immediate volume declines from new import restrictions, persistent cost headwinds, and weak small-business and Amazon volumes, partially offset by longer-term confidence in its core franchise. Analyst Commentary Recent executive orders suspending de minimis access for U.S. imports have caused an immediate fall in shipment volumes, leading to near-term volume and cost pressures.

Shared on 04 Aug 25

Fair value Decreased 6.93%

Despite higher consensus revenue growth forecasts, a lower future P/E suggests increased caution around profitability or risk, leading to a reduced fair value estimate for United Parcel Service from $112.17 to $105.73. What's in the News UPS is deploying advanced robotics in warehouse logistics alongside peers (FedEx, Walmart, DHL) to automate tasks like loading/unloading, leveraging AI and sensors to improve efficiency and reduce costs, though challenges with certain package types persist (Wall Street Journal).

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Decreased 8.92%

Shared on 30 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 3.67%

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased revenue growth from 1.0% to 1.1%.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 1.04%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased shares outstanding growth rate from -0.0% to -0.0%.

Shared on 16 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 2.59%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.79%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 1.3% to 1.0%.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.18%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 0.091%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 0.64%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 16%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 4.0% to 1.4%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$100.5

0.4% overvalued

Future estimation in

% p.a.

0

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

1.98%

Logistics revenue growth rate

0.23%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

8.36%

Calculation

US$6.90b

Earnings '28

x

15.26x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$105.31b

Market Cap '28

US$105.31b

Market Cap '28

/

830.41m

No. shares '28

=

US$126.81

Share Price '28

US$126.81 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 8.08% p.a.

=

US$100.45

Fair Value '25