Last Update 13 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.90%

UBER: Autonomous Expansion Will Sustain Platform Engagement And Profit Momentum

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Uber Technologies by about $1 per share to roughly $112, citing a strong Q3 print, accelerating delivery growth versus peers, and confidence that robust engagement and profit expansion can continue even as margin gains normalize and long term autonomous vehicle economics become a greater focus.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts remain broadly constructive on Uber following the Q3 update, pointing to solid execution across mobility and delivery, resilient user engagement, and a strengthening narrative around long term autonomous vehicle positioning, even as expectations for near term AV profit contribution are tempered.

Bullish analysts have nudged price targets higher in response to the company modestly outperforming Street expectations on revenue while delivering robust EBITDA, reinforcing the view that Uber can sustain healthy profit growth even as incremental margin expansion slows from prior peaks.

At the same time, some more cautious voices highlight that the shift in focus toward annual profitability targets and the acknowledgment that autonomous vehicles are unlikely to be a profit driver in the next few years may alter how investors value Uber's long duration opportunities, putting greater scrutiny on capital allocation and returns on invested capital.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the Q3 beat on revenue and solid EBITDA as evidence that Uber can expand profits while continuing to grow platform engagement. This supports higher fair value estimates and price targets.
Accelerating delivery growth relative to key peers is viewed as validation of Uber's competitive positioning and cross platform advantages. This underpins confidence in sustained top line expansion.
The steady core operating performance and disciplined approach to profitability reinforce the view that Uber can balance growth and margin, a key driver of re rating potential in the medium term.
Despite near term uncertainty around AV profitability, bullish analysts see Uber as one of the best placed platforms to ultimately monetize autonomous technology at scale, adding strategic option value to the equity story.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts flag that Q3 EBITDA and the Q4 outlook came in slightly light versus some expectations, which raises questions about how much further margins can expand without slowing growth.
Management's view that autonomous vehicles will not be materially profitable for several years leads some investors to reassess the timing and magnitude of AV related upside that had been embedded in long term valuation frameworks.
The shift in guidance toward a more annual, high level profitability framework creates less near term visibility on quarterly execution, which increases the risk of sentiment swings around individual prints.
With investors now more focused on long term returns on invested capital, Uber faces a higher bar to demonstrate that continued investment in AV and adjacent initiatives will translate into durable, value accretive growth.

What's in the News

Australian food delivery workers could see pay rise about 25 percent to $20.19 an hour under a draft deal between Uber Eats, DoorDash and Australia’s transport union, which would also require accident insurance coverage if approved in July (Reuters).
Uber plans to roll out driverless rides in the San Francisco Bay Area using Lucid Gravity SUVs equipped with Nuro’s self driving technology, directly challenging Waymo’s robotaxi service as testing progresses ahead of launch next year (Bloomberg).
Uber is reportedly preparing to invest about $100 million in Pony AI’s Hong Kong share sale and is also interested in autonomous driving company WeRide’s listing, extending its financial bets on key AV partners (Bloomberg).
New Jersey’s Attorney General has opened an investigation into the frequency of sexual violence on Uber rides and whether the company misrepresented rider safety, issuing a subpoena seeking internal data, policies and response records (New York Times).
Uber expects non restaurant deliveries to reach a $12.5 billion annual gross bookings run rate by the end of 2025, up 25 percent from its prior $10 billion outlook, underscoring momentum in retail and other delivery verticals (Bloomberg).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly by about $1 per share, from roughly $111.06 to $112.06, reflecting incremental confidence in Uber’s profit trajectory.
The Discount Rate has increased marginally from about 8.02 percent to 8.04 percent, implying a slightly higher required return on equity risk.
The Revenue Growth Forecast has edged down modestly from approximately 14.59 percent to 14.56 percent, indicating a very small recalibration of top line expectations.
The Net Profit Margin Outlook has improved slightly from around 13.95 percent to 13.96 percent, signaling a minor upgrade to long term profitability assumptions.
The Future P/E Multiple has risen modestly from about 27.47x to 27.74x, suggesting a small increase in the valuation investors are willing to pay for expected earnings.

Expanding user base, product diversification, and deepening customer engagement through cross-platform integration and targeted promotions are driving strong revenue growth and retention.
Strategic investments in autonomous vehicles, electrification, and high-margin ancillary services enhance long-term profitability and create sustainable competitive advantages.
High investment in autonomous vehicles, intensifying competition, operational complexity, regulatory pressures, and lower-margin products threaten profitability and the scalability of Uber's core businesses.

Catalysts

About Uber Technologies

Develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Ongoing expansion of the user base in both developed and emerging markets-driven by urban growth, improved smartphone access, digital payments, and tailored product offerings (like Moto and premium/reserve options)-is increasing trips and gross bookings, supporting robust revenue growth.
Cross-platform integration between Mobility, Delivery, and new verticals, combined with product initiatives like Uber One membership and targeted AI-powered promotions, is deepening user engagement and spend per customer, likely resulting in higher retention rates and improved consolidated net margins.
Significant investments and accelerating partnerships in autonomous vehicles (AVs) and electrification (with Waymo, Lucid, Nuro, etc.) position Uber to benefit from secular industry shifts; successful AV commercialization could transform long-term cost structures and profitability, boosting future earnings potential.
Progressive scaling of high-margin ancillary revenue streams such as advertising, data/tech platform externalization, and Uber One loyalty, are supporting margin expansion and enhancing long-term earning power.
Uber's large-scale, multi-modal platform and ongoing operational efficiency improvements-underpinned by AI-driven route optimization and cost management-create a sustainable advantage versus monoline and regional competitors, supporting both revenue growth and stable/improving net margins.

Uber Technologies Earnings and Revenue Growth

Uber Technologies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Uber Technologies's revenue will grow by 14.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 26.7% today to 13.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $9.7 billion (and earnings per share of $4.72) by about September 2028, down from $12.6 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $13.7 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $7.0 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 27.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from 15.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Transportation industry at 24.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.96% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.95%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Uber Technologies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Uber's heavy strategic and financial commitment to autonomous vehicle (AV) partnerships and direct asset ownership (e.g., vehicle purchases with OEMs) introduces significant capital intensity and profit risk, given that AV operations are currently unprofitable and commercialization/timelines remain uncertain-this may pressure free cash flow and net margins if AVs don't achieve scale or unit economics soon.
Intensifying competition in both existing ride-hailing (from regional/local players and micro-mobility alternatives) and the upcoming AV market (from direct deployment by tech and auto OEMs like Tesla/Waymo) could erode Uber's market share and pricing power, putting long-term revenue growth and EBITDA at risk.
Difficulty in balancing platform integration (the "super app" strategy) versus focused app experiences creates operational complexity and execution risk; poor cross-promotion or cannibalization between Mobility and Delivery could dilute consumer experience, slow active user growth, and undermine anticipated synergies and profit contributions from higher retention/membership.
Persistent exposure to fluctuating regulatory and insurance environments-such as changing labor classifications, urban congestion pricing, or stricter environmental rules (e.g., EV mandates)-could increase Uber's compliance and insurance costs, squeezing net margins and limiting expansion of gross bookings.
Although membership and lower-cost product expansion are increasing audience and trips, these segments (e.g., "wait & save", two-wheelers, subsidized surge pricing for Uber One users) typically generate lower profit per trip, risking further compression of average gross margin and requiring continued growth in high-premium segments to balance earnings and sustain net income growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $106.426 for Uber Technologies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $150.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $82.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $71.2 billion, earnings will come to $9.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 27.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
Given the current share price of $95.45, the analyst price target of $106.43 is 10.3% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

UBER: Expanding Driverless Rides Will Accelerate Market Leadership Over Rivals

UBER: Autonomous Expansion Will Sustain Platform Engagement And Profit Momentum

Analyst Commentary

What's in the News

Valuation Changes

Key Takeaways

Catalysts

Assumptions

Risks

Valuation

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Disclaimer

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