AI Ecosystem And Hardware Refresh Cycle Will Support Long Term Upside Potential

Catalysts

About Ingram Micro Holding

Ingram Micro Holding is a global technology distributor that connects vendors, channel partners and end customers across hardware, software, cloud and services.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• The build out of Ingram Micro's AI ecosystem through Xvantage, the AI Factory and the Enable AI program positions the company at the center of rising AI infrastructure and solution spending, which can support long term revenue growth and higher non-GAAP net income as AI driven bundles scale.
• Rapid adoption of the IDA assistant and new AI agents like Sales Briefing Assistant, which are already linked to hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue and stronger quote to order conversion, points to further efficiency gains that can support gross profit dollars and operating margin over time.
• Ongoing desktop and notebook refresh activity, including the early phase of AI PCs that currently represent about 25% of PC shipments, gives Ingram Micro exposure to a multiyear hardware upgrade cycle that can sustain client and endpoint revenue and support overall earnings.
• Broad based growth across regions such as Latin America and Asia Pacific, together with improving trends in higher margin SMB customers across all product categories, can support a richer mix for gross margins and help drive non-GAAP EPS over time.
• Cloud, servers, storage, cybersecurity and large GPU projects are increasingly sold as integrated solutions, and Ingram Micro's role in co creating multi vendor offerings with hyperscalers and GPU vendors can deepen vendor relationships, widen its opportunity set and support both net sales and return on invested capital.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Ingram Micro Holding compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bullish analysts are assuming Ingram Micro Holding's revenue will grow by 3.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 0.6% today to 1.3% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $709.0 million (and earnings per share of $2.88) by about January 2029, up from $289.6 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.2x on those 2029 earnings, down from 17.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Electronic industry at 25.5x.
• The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.11% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.83%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Cloud net revenues were only up low single digits once a noncore divestiture is excluded, and overall cloud sales declined 4%. This suggests that if customers continue to favor hardware or net recorded product sales over higher margin cloud subscriptions, long term revenue mix could tilt toward lower growth and weigh on gross margins and earnings.
• Gross margin was pressured by a higher mix of lower margin client and endpoint solutions and by large GPU and AI enablement projects that are intentionally priced at low margin. If AI related hardware and other low cost to serve categories remain a large share of activity, the company could see sustained pressure on gross margins and limited growth in net income even when net sales are healthy.
• Advanced solutions sales were down 4.5% year over year, partly because a large infrastructure software project in Europe did not repeat. This shows that reliance on sizable projects and uneven software demand can create volatility in higher value categories and affect revenue stability and operating margin over time.
• Net working capital increased to US$4.9b and adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was an outflow of US$110m, reflecting heavier inventory and receivables to support growth. If similar investment is required over several years or if sell through slows, cash generation could remain constrained and raise the risk around earnings quality and balance sheet flexibility.
• Gross leverage of 2.8x and net leverage of 2.2x are roughly flat year over year while the company is investing in AI infrastructure, Xvantage and working capital. If growth expectations are not met or margins compress further, the combination of debt levels and ongoing investment needs could pressure net income through higher financing costs or limit capacity for shareholder returns.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bullish price target for Ingram Micro Holding is $31.31, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $25.25. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Ingram Micro Holding's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $32.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $21.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $56.7 billion, earnings will come to $709.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.8%.
  
• Given the current share price of $21.01, the analyst price target of $31.31 is 32.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.