Management guidance (FY2025 Q2) -- $23 - $25bn revenue guidance for 2025, and positive about reaching $40bn in revenue for 2026, this is due to the DLC technology (Direct Liquid Cooling) that is expected to be adopted by an estimate of 30% of the new data center space.

New Auditor & Special Committee -- After almost a 85% decline in share price after Hidenburg's (short seller) accounting manipulation report on the company, SMCI' has already increased their stock price in more than 200% expecting to release all of their adjusted and revised filings for FY2024 (10-K) and the first two quarters of 2025 (10-Q).

Conclusion: I truly believe in the companies offerings and position in the short and long term as one of the best consolidated AI plays out there. Partnerships with NVDA, AMD, xAI and Intel make them one of the most attractive providers of GPU data center infrastructure, while still profiting from growth in other related industries like Cloud, 5G and Storage.

Using SWS Fair Value tool: Using management guidance of $23bn for 2025 and $40bn for 2026 I decided to use a revenue growth rate of 50% to reach an estimated Revenue of $50bn for 2028 (conservative in my view). Using their TTM net profit margin of 6.64% and a conservative forward PE of 20x. With the aforementioned assumptions my fair value estimate for SMCI stock is at least $74.7 using a 3y exit, and $126.52 using a 5y exit.

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To read a little more in depth analysis of the Hindenburg situation and the company in general, check my substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/davidvicuna/p/supermicro-smci?r=2ybav6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Non of this information or analysis is intended to be financial advise, this is only for education and entertainment purposes.

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Disclaimer

The user DavidWSC has a position in NasdaqGS:SMCI. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.