Lumentum Holdings

Optical Demand Will Strengthen Cloud And AI Expansion Amid Rising Industry Momentum

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

26 Apr 25

Updated

08 Dec 25

Views

590

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

368.5%

7D

16.5%

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1Y

368.5%

7D

16.5%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 9 4:05 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$255.1452.8% overvalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 08 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 10%

LITE: AI Optical Demand Will Drive Future Multiple But Limit Near-Term Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target on Lumentum Holdings, raising it from roughly $230 to about $255 per share, as they grow more confident that surging AI driven demand for data center optics and optical circuit switches will support faster revenue growth and a higher future earnings multiple, despite modestly lower margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to a broadly constructive outlook on Lumentum, with a notable cluster of target price increases reflecting growing confidence in the durability of AI driven optical demand and the company’s execution on its product roadmap.

Shared on 24 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 6.24%

LITE: Surging AI Demand Will Expose Shares To Near-Term Downside Risk

The analyst price target for Lumentum Holdings has been raised from $217.75 to $231.33. Analysts cite stronger revenue growth trends, improving profit margins, and heightened demand for the company's optical and laser technologies as contributing factors, driven by AI and data center market expansion.

Shared on 08 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 33%

LITE: Near-Term AI Demand Surge Will Risk Disappointment Amid Tight Margins

The analyst price target for Lumentum Holdings has been significantly raised from $163.85 to $217.75 per share. This reflects analyst confidence in robust demand for AI-driven optical connectivity, improved margins, and growth prospects following the company's recent earnings outperformance and strengthened guidance.

Shared on 25 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 12%

Lumentum Holdings' analyst price target has increased significantly from $146.16 to $163.85 per share, as analysts cite robust demand for datacom components, positive earnings momentum, and ongoing AI-driven infrastructure investment in raising their outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates on Lumentum Holdings highlight a mix of optimism and caution in reaction to strong business momentum and evolving industry dynamics.

Shared on 10 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 1.65%

Lumentum Holdings' analyst price target has increased modestly to $146 from $144. Analysts point to strong demand for datacom components, supply constraints, and momentum in AI-driven optical networking as key drivers behind the upward revision.

Shared on 24 Sep 25

Fair value Increased 2.82%

Lumentum Holdings' analyst price target has been raised as strong near-term AI datacenter demand for EML lasers, favorable product mix, and robust order growth drive upward guidance and margin strength, offset by some valuation concerns, with fair value now seen at $143.79. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight strong near-term demand momentum, particularly for 200G EML lasers in AI-driven data center infrastructure, with supply ramping to meet significant order growth.

Shared on 09 Sep 25

Fair value Increased 1.14%

Upward revisions to Lumentum’s price target reflect strong Q4 results, robust datacom and AI-driven demand, and greater business resilience beyond Cloud, though some caution that recent gains may already be reflected in valuations; consensus fair value has nudged up from $138.26 to $139.84. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite Lumentum’s very strong Q4 results and above-consensus Q1 guidance, powered by robust demand for datacom components and record EML shipments, fueled further by AI infrastructure investments.

Shared on 15 Aug 25

Fair value Increased 1.97%

Analysts remain optimistic on Lumentum Holdings due to strong Q4 results, robust guidance, and accelerating AI and cloud infrastructure demand, though some express valuation concerns after recent stock gains; consequently, the consensus price target remains unchanged at $135.59. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite very strong Q4 results and robust guidance, driven by strength in datacom components (especially EMLs and transceivers) and record Cloud module growth, benefiting from accelerated AI infrastructure spending and heightened demand from hyperscalers.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Increased 40%

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$255.14

52.8% overvalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

26.64%

Communications revenue growth rate

0.75%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

8.36%

Calculation

US$687.18m

Earnings '28

x

35.93x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$24.69b

Market Cap '28

US$24.69b

Market Cap '28

/

76.25m

No. shares '28

=

US$323.77

Share Price '28

US$323.77 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 8.38% p.a.

=

US$254.29

Fair Value '25