Last Update 04 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 3.54%

WIX: Elevated AI And Base44 Spend Will Support Long-Term Monetization Potential

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Wix.com from $164.00 to $158.20, reflecting lower price targets across several firms as they factor in higher near term AI and Base44 related costs alongside slightly softer margin assumptions, even as they continue to highlight resilience in the core business and potential longer term benefits from AI driven offerings.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research notes show that while price targets for Wix.com have been reduced, many analysts still see a mix of attractive upside drivers and execution risks, especially around AI initiatives and Base44 related spending.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to Q3 revenue and bookings that met or exceeded their expectations, which they see as support for the current valuation despite higher expense levels.
Several reports highlight strength and resilience in the core business, with new customer cohorts and Creative Subscriptions seen as important pillars for long term growth potential.
Wix's position in AI driven website building and the contribution from Base44 are viewed by bullish analysts as important drivers that could help the business stand out over time, especially if AI monetization progresses as they expect.
Some analysts describe the recent pullback and lower targets as a reset that reflects updated margin and free cash flow assumptions rather than a loss of confidence in Wix.com's ability to execute on its AI and Base44 roadmap.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on elevated AI, Vibe coding, and Base44 related costs, which are weighing on near term EBIT, margins, and free cash flow, and creating uncertainty around how quickly profitability can improve.
There is concern that the pace and scale of investment outlined by management was out of step with what many investors expected. This raises questions about execution discipline and timing of returns.
Some commentary flags that Base44's contribution to Creative Subscriptions helped the guidance on bookings. To these analysts, this suggests that core Creative Subscriptions may have slightly missed, adding a layer of caution around underlying growth quality.
Lowered long term EBITDA and free cash flow forecasts in certain models have led to meaningfully reduced price targets. This reflects the risk that higher AI and marketing spend, along with a delayed AI self creator launch, could weigh on Wix.com's ability to reach prior profitability and cash generation assumptions.

What's in the News

Wix.com announced a new share repurchase program authorizing up to US$2.0b of ordinary share and/or convertible note buybacks, funded by cash on hand and future operating cash flow, scheduled to run through FY2026 to FY2027 (company announcement).
The Board of Directors approved the new buyback plan on January 28, 2026, signaling continued focus on returning capital to shareholders via repurchases (company announcement).
Wix.com introduced Wix Harmony, an AI website builder that combines vibe coding with the existing visual editor and is powered by Aria, an AI agent that can build and adjust sites using natural language. An English rollout is planned in the coming weeks (product announcement).
Through its collaboration with Stripe, Wix Payments expanded local payment options across multiple European countries, allowing eligible businesses to accept methods such as iDEAL, Clearpay, and Klarna within a single Wix interface (client announcement).
Wix also integrated Stripe's Agentic Commerce Suite so merchants can sell across multiple AI agents through a low code setup that is being made available on a gradual basis to eligible users (client announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: trimmed from US$164.00 to US$158.20, representing a modest downward adjustment to the modelled intrinsic value.
Discount Rate: nudged down from 12.63% to 12.60%, indicating a slightly lower required return in the updated assumptions.
Revenue Growth: adjusted from 12.83% to 13.00%, showing a small uplift in the long run top line growth assumption used in the model.
Net Profit Margin: moved from 9.59% to 9.51%, reflecting a minor reduction in expected long term profitability.
Future P/E: revised from 47.61x to 46.07x, suggesting a slightly lower multiple being applied to projected earnings.

AI-driven features and onboarding are boosting user growth, conversion rates, and monetization, supporting sustainable revenue and margin expansion.
Diversification into new digital markets and ongoing global brand strength are broadening revenue streams and underpinning long-term business scalability.
Rising AI-driven competition, regulatory pressures, and increased operational costs threaten Wix.com's growth, profitability, and ability to retain customers in a rapidly evolving web development market.

Catalysts

About Wix.com

Operates a cloud-based web development platform for registered users and creators worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating adoption of AI-powered tools and onboarding funnels is driving a significant increase in new user cohorts and higher conversion to paid subscriptions, which supports expectations for revenue growth in both the near and long term.
The acquisition and rapid scale of Base44 is opening new addressable markets beyond traditional website building-such as application and prototype development-broadening total addressable market and further diversifying revenue streams.
Sustained organic brand awareness and improving retention, especially among longer-term, higher-value users, creates greater revenue predictability and supports expanding operating margins as marketing spend becomes more efficient.
AI-powered feature rollouts (e.g., generative engine optimization, AI marketing agent, advanced business solutions) are driving higher user monetization and enabling price optimization, which can contribute to rising average revenue per user and enhance gross margins.
Ongoing expansion of digital presence among SMBs, entrepreneurs, and creators globally-paired with increased demand for mobile-optimized and no-code/low-code solutions-provides secular tailwinds that underpin multi-year growth in users, bookings, and operating leverage.

Wix.com Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Wix.com's revenue will grow by 13.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.9% today to 15.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $415.6 million (and earnings per share of $7.15) by about September 2028, up from $166.3 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $463.8 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $298.5 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 39.4x on those 2028 earnings, down from 55.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US IT industry at 29.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.06% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.69%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Wix.com Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The ongoing decline in organic search traffic to individual websites, coupled with the rise of AI-powered large language models (LLMs) that may increasingly aggregate and surface content directly, could structurally reduce demand for traditional DIY web solutions, eventually impacting Wix.com's long-term revenue growth trajectory.
The rapid growth of new market entrants leveraging cutting-edge AI and no-code/low-code solutions-even as Wix acquired BASE44-raises the threat of intensified competition and potential commoditization, possibly leading to stagnating or declining average revenue per user (ARPU) and margin compression over time.
Incremental and potentially sustained increases in R&D, AI infrastructure, and marketing expenses (due to acquisitions and integrating new technologies like BASE44 and expanding the product roadmap) could pressure operating and net margins, particularly if revenue growth slows or the expected synergies do not fully materialize.
The evolving regulatory landscape regarding data privacy (GDPR), website accessibility, and global digital taxation presents an ongoing risk of elevated compliance costs and increased operational complexity for Wix.com, which could negatively affect net earnings and constrain international expansion.
As AI-driven web creation and application building tools lower the technical barriers to switching platforms, there's risk that user churn could increase if competitors close the functionality gap, which may limit Wix's ability to retain customers, grow revenue predictably, and maintain its premium positioning in a maturing market.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $206.091 for Wix.com based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $255.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $160.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.7 billion, earnings will come to $415.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 39.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.7%.
Given the current share price of $167.04, the analyst price target of $206.09 is 18.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

AI Adoption And Base44 Integration Will Fuel Future Expansion