AI Commerce Adoption And Cloud Partnerships Will Drive Long-Term Retail Infrastructure Upside

Catalysts

About Rezolve AI

Rezolve AI provides AI powered, commerce specific software that helps enterprise retailers increase digital conversion and recurring revenue.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Rapid enterprise adoption of AI driven commerce tools, evidenced by Rezolve scaling from a standing start to $90 million in annual recurring revenue and more than 100 enterprise customers in under a year, creates a long runway for contracted subscription growth that can compound reported revenue and earnings.
• The structural shift of global retail spending toward online and omnichannel experiences, in a $30 trillion commerce market, favors Rezolve's Brain Suite as an infrastructure layer for agentic commerce, supporting sustained ARR expansion and improving operating leverage over time.
• Industry consolidation of legacy search and recommendation vendors into AI native platforms, as shown by the GroupBy and ViSenze deals, gives Rezolve a repeatable roll up playbook to acquire revenue, expand margins and accelerate upsell driven ARR and EBITDA growth.
• Large cloud providers increasingly rely on specialist ISVs to monetize their own infrastructure commitments, and Microsoft and Google are already treating Rezolve solutions as quota creditable offerings, which should shorten sales cycles, increase deal sizes and support upside to revenue and cash flow forecasts.
• Merchants and consumers are gradually moving toward digital asset and alternative payment rails, and Rezolve's planned crypto enabled Brain Checkout with Tether integration positions the company to capture new payment economics and higher take rates, supporting net margin expansion as volumes scale.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Rezolve AI's revenue will grow by 285.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Rezolve AI will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Rezolve AI's profit margin will increase from -4102.3% to the average US Software industry of 12.7% in 3 years.
• If Rezolve AI's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $38.9 million (and earnings per share of $0.12) by about December 2028, up from $-217.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $49.7 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-542.6 thousand.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 104.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 31.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 6.32% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.11%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Rezolve AI is projecting a rapid scale up in ARR from $90 million today to a $150 million exit rate in 2025 and $500 million in 2026. Any slowdown in the broader AI commerce adoption cycle or elongated enterprise sales cycles could mean these aggressive ARR targets are missed, which would pressure revenue growth and delay the path to positive earnings.
• The company plans to accelerate expansion through a roll up of legacy search vendors such as GroupBy and ViSenze. However, integration risk, overpayment for assets or weaker than expected cross sell into the Brain Suite could dilute margins and constrain the operating leverage needed to improve net margins and EBITDA.
• Rezolve AI is leaning heavily on strategic partnerships with Microsoft and Google for lead generation and quota creditable sales. Any change in partner priorities, go to market programs or technical integration could slow new logo growth and upsell momentum, undermining long term ARR expansion and earnings potential.
• The strategy to build a large professional services division with 250 engineers and materially lower margins between 18% and 45% introduces execution and utilization risk. If services grow faster than high margin SaaS subscriptions or are not priced correctly, consolidated gross margin could trend down and weigh on future net margins.
• The planned launch of crypto enabled Brain Checkout with Tether and additional acquisitions to build a blockchain based payments stack exposes Rezolve AI to evolving regulation, merchant and consumer adoption risk and potential technology or security challenges. This could limit the expected new payment economics and constrain both revenue diversification and long term net margin expansion.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $10.0 for Rezolve AI based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $7.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $304.8 million, earnings will come to $38.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 104.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.1%.
  
• Given the current share price of $2.91, the analyst price target of $10.0 is 70.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.