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Published
28 Sep 25
Views
264
Not Invested
Pony AIPONY
PONY logo
Fair Value
US$3.61
Share price28 Sep
US$6.7687.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
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1Y-55.64%
7D-6.24%

Simple Math - Pony pays for each robotaxi in 8 months.

FR
frogwater

Author hasn't set their bio yet

Published
28 Sep 25
Views
264
Not Invested
Fair ValueUS$3.61
Share priceUS$6.76
87.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
Narrative
Updates0

Both Guangzhou and Shenzhen allow 24 hour a day service. The average robotaxi fair price is $7. Pony expects 25 fares per day. The translates to $175/day for 365 days a year = $63,875. The estimated Pony BOM cost is about $31,000 for a Toyota bZ4X and the PONY hardware stack is about $12,000. That means per vehicle hardware costs is approximately $43,000. Not including operational costs (people costs), that means EVERY PONY vehicle is paid for in about 8 months. So, PONY has cracked the per unit cost. Now it is a pure scaling operational limitation.

Regardless of estimated stock value, they have enough money to scale. And their safety first orientation will get them there. Check my math.

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Disclaimer

The user frogwater holds no position in NasdaqGS:PONY. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value vs Share Price

US$3.61
vs US$6.7687.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
PastFuture-225m586m202120232025202720292030Revenue US$586.5mEarnings US$75.9m
46.9%
Revenue growth
12.9%
Profit margin

Recent News & Updates

No updates

Recent updates

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Company analysis

Excellent balance sheet and slightly overvalued.

Market capUS$2.9b
PB1.9x
Estimated Growth49.1%
Dividend YieldN/A
Full analysis

CEO & management

Jun Peng
CEO
9.8yrs
CEO Tenure

Through its subsidiaries, engages in the autonomous mobility business in the People’s Republic of China and internationally.

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