Last Update 19 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 7.58%

PEGA: Buyback Expansion Will Reset Expectations And Support Rerated Earnings Multiple

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Pegasystems by about $6 to reflect a lower fair value estimate of $72.09, while factoring in updated assumptions around growth, profitability, and a more moderate future P/E.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research has converged around a reset in expectations for Pegasystems, with several firms lowering their price targets and one major bank moving to a more constructive view. For you as an investor, the key is how these views connect back to valuation, execution, and growth rather than the headline number on any single report.

While some targets have come down by US$15 to US$20, bullish analysts are still pointing to areas where they see upside potential if management can deliver on its plans. At the same time, a fresh upgrade from a large global bank signals that at least part of the market sees current pricing as more reasonable relative to the updated fair value estimate of US$72.09.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are framing the lower price targets as a recalibration to the new fair value estimate of US$72.09, not a loss of confidence in the business. This can sometimes clear the bar for future execution if expectations were previously too high.
The recent upgrade from a global bank suggests that some see the risk and reward profile as more attractive after the reset in assumptions around growth, profitability, and a more moderate future P/E.
Supportive commentary in the latest reports points to the view that, if Pegasystems can deliver on its operational goals, there could be room for the valuation to move closer to the updated fair value estimate over time.
Across the research, the common thread on the bullish side is that the current setup may better align the share price with fundamentals, which can help reduce the gap between execution risk and what is already reflected in the stock.

What's in the News

From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Pegasystems repurchased 1,916,000 shares, equal to 1.12% of shares, for US$106.21 million, completing a total of 26,643,656 shares repurchased for US$863.54 million under the long running buyback that began on December 1, 2008 (Key Developments).
On February 10, 2026, Pegasystems increased its equity buyback authorization by US$1,000 million to US$1,887.29 million and extended the program to June 30, 2027 (Key Developments).
Pegasystems issued 2026 guidance, targeting GAAP revenue of US$2.0b and GAAP diluted earnings per share of US$1.87 (Key Developments).
The company launched Notes to Blueprint to help organizations move legacy Lotus Notes applications into modern cloud based automated workflows, using assets acquired from Sweden based Adopteq and distribution through partners such as Capgemini and AWS Marketplace (Key Developments).
Pegasystems announced new agentic AI features in Pega Client Lifecycle Management to automate onboarding, document processing, screening, and KYC across jurisdictions, and separately entered a collaboration with Moody’s Corporation so CLM clients can use Moody’s entity verification data directly within the platform (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: reset from $78.00 to $72.09, indicating a modest reduction in the estimated intrinsic value per share.
Discount Rate: held essentially flat, moving fractionally from 8.41% to 8.41%, so the required return assumption is largely unchanged.
Revenue Growth: updated from 6.72% to 14.43%, reflecting a higher projected top line growth rate in the model.
Net Profit Margin: adjusted from 15.23% to 20.30%, implying a higher expected level of profitability on future revenue.
Future P/E: brought down from 54.15x to 28.55x, indicating a materially lower valuation multiple being applied to forward earnings.

Accelerated adoption of AI-driven Blueprint and partner collaborations position Pega for rapid revenue and contract expansion, surpassing industry growth expectations.
Cloud migration, unique low-code solutions, and strategic expansion into public sector and partner channels drive margin improvement, client retention, and long-term market reach.
Pegasystems faces mounting competitive, regulatory, and technology pressures that could constrain revenue growth, squeeze margins, and reduce market differentiation over the long term.

Catalysts

About Pegasystems

Develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Analyst consensus anticipates Pega's AI-driven Blueprint to accelerate digital and legacy transformation, but given unprecedented adoption by both clients and major global systems integrators-many creating partner-branded Blueprints for their own practices-there is potential for an exponential uptick in client wins and expansion, likely generating step-change increases in annual contract value (ACV) and near-term revenue well above current forecasts.
While analysts broadly agree that Pega Cloud's strong growth will drive stable recurring revenues, the rapid shift of both new and existing clients to Pega Cloud, driven by the Blueprint-led ease of migration and the urgency to modernize legacy systems, strongly positions Pega to realize industry-leading gross and net margin expansion, supporting sustained outperformance in earnings growth over multiple years.
The unique architecture underpinning Pega Infinity and its model-driven, low-code approach radically reduces client development costs, enables faster deployment and lowers barriers to enterprise-wide automation, which is likely to catalyze wallet share gains within existing customers and accelerate new customer acquisitions, improving both revenue growth rates and long-term client retention.
Pega's expansion into public sector and regulated industries is accelerating, as evidenced by major government wins and proven differentiated FedRAMP High authorization; this positions Pega to capture disproportionately large, high-margin contracts as rising regulatory complexity and cloud mandates create a multiyear tailwind for new logo and upsell activity.
The growing strategic channel with large global partners and hyperscalers-evidenced by the new AWS collaboration and imminent partner channel expansion-creates a new scalable go-to-market motion that can significantly amplify Pega's reach beyond traditional direct sales, opening incremental and underpenetrated addressable markets, and underpinning a long-term acceleration in revenue and free cash flow growth.

Pegasystems Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Pegasystems compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
The bullish analysts are assuming Pegasystems's revenue will grow by 6.7% annually over the next 3 years.
The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 13.1% today to 15.2% in 3 years time.
The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $310.2 million (and earnings per share of $1.67) by about September 2028, up from $220.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 54.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 44.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.25% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Pegasystems Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The ongoing shift towards integrated, multi-function cloud suites from major players like Salesforce, Microsoft, and SAP could diminish Pegasystems' standalone appeal in enterprise transformation, putting long-term pressure on revenue growth and limiting its overall market share.
Despite innovation in AI and Blueprint, Pegasystems remains highly dependent on large enterprise clients and direct sales, which exposes it to the risk of losing key customers or contracts; such concentration could cause significant revenue volatility and margin contraction if clients consolidate or switch to competitors.
As the market increasingly favors low-code and no-code platforms, there is a risk that Pegasystems' solutions become less differentiated or overly complex compared to simpler, more accessible alternatives, potentially compressing its addressable market and reducing pricing power, ultimately dampening revenue and net margins.
Persistent pressure to keep pace with rapid technology evolution-including frequent enhancements and releases like those for Blueprint-necessitates high ongoing R&D and sales investments, which could suppress margin expansion and limit future earnings growth, despite current cash flow strength.
Increasingly strict and complex data privacy and compliance regulations, particularly for global cloud and AI-driven products, will raise operating costs and introduce additional execution risks, threatening both net margins and the predictability of long-term earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The assumed bullish price target for Pegasystems is $78.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Pegasystems's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $78.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $40.19.
In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.0 billion, earnings will come to $310.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 54.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $57.01, the bullish analyst price target of $78.0 is 26.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Pegasystems?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystHighTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystHighTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystHighTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Digital Transformation Will Ignite AI Cloud Potential