Key Takeaways

Expansion into the enterprise market and AI integration may delay revenue growth due to scalability and adoption challenges.
Workforce and operational expense increases to capture large accounts could compress margins in the short term.
The company's focus on AI and a shift to sales-led growth could face challenges impacting revenue amidst global economic uncertainties and cost pressures.

Catalysts

About monday.com

Develops software applications in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

monday.com's expansion into the enterprise market is anticipated to drive significant growth opportunities, but the required enhancements to their data architecture and scalability could lead to delayed implementation and subdued revenue expectations.
The integration of AI capabilities, while a notable advancement, may require time for wide adoption and monetization. This could impact anticipated revenue gains as the market adjusts to the flexible consumption-based pricing model for AI Blocks.
While monday.com's CRM and multiproduct strategies have exceeded expectations, the shift to more complex enterprise sales could lengthen sales cycles and potentially temper expectations for net revenue retention growth as customers take longer to adopt supplementary products.
The competitive pressures and economic conditions in regions like Europe, alongside currency headwinds, could result in less optimistic revenue performance, affecting earnings in contrast to more positive U.S. market indicators.
The strategic increase in workforce and operational expenses, especially in sales and R&D, aimed at capturing larger client accounts might compress net margins in the short term as gains from these investments are realized over a longer period than currently projected.

monday.com Earnings and Revenue Growth

monday.com Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on monday.com compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts.
The bearish analysts are assuming monday.com's revenue will grow by 21.5% annually over the next 3 years.
The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.3% today to 6.3% in 3 years time.
The bearish analysts expect earnings to reach $110.6 million (and earnings per share of $2.03) by about May 2028, up from $32.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 175.5x on those 2028 earnings, down from 432.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 33.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.19% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.03%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

monday.com Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's reliance on international markets, particularly in Europe where there was noted choppiness in demand, could impact their revenue stability, especially with geopolitical uncertainties affecting foreign exchange rates negatively.
The strategic investment in AI development and hiring might not yield immediate revenue results, as the company acknowledged that it had not factored AI revenue into the 2025 guidance due to early days in its implementation.
The company's rapid growth in headcount and commitment to maintaining high R&D expenditures could pressure net margins if revenue growth does not sustainably outpace these rising costs.
The transition from a product-led growth model to more of a sales-led growth approach in enterprise markets entails execution risk and could lead to longer sales cycles, potentially impacting near-term revenue recognition.
The guidance for 2025 anticipates potential adverse impacts from foreign exchange rates and geopolitical tension, factors that could affect overall earnings depending on global economic conditions.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The assumed bearish price target for monday.com is $265.0, which represents the lowest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of monday.com's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $450.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $265.0.
In order for you to agree with the bearish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.7 billion, earnings will come to $110.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 175.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.0%.
Given the current share price of $275.6, the bearish analyst price target of $265.0 is 4.0% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst bearish price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Enterprise And AI Integration Will Unlock New Opportunities

Shared on07 May 25Fair value Decreased 11%

Shared on30 Apr 25Fair value Decreased 0.70%

Shared on07 May 25
Fair value Decreased 11%

Shared on30 Apr 25
Fair value Decreased 0.70%