AI Tools Will Enhance User Experience And Expand Mid-Market Reach

Key Takeaways

• Intuit's AI-driven transformation and targeted tools are expected to boost user adoption, retention, and efficiencies, supporting revenue growth and improving net margins.
  
• Strategic expansion into the mid-market segment and focused marketing could enhance customer acquisition, monetization, and overall revenue and margins.
  
• Intuit faces challenges with customer retention in Mailchimp, revenue decline from Desktop Ecosystem, mid-market penetration risks, and increasing costs pressuring margins.

Catalysts

Provides financial management, compliance, and marketing products and services in the United States.

• Intuit's transformation into an AI-driven expert platform is anticipated to enhance user experiences, leading to improved customer retention and acquisition, which should support revenue growth.
  
• The expansion of AI-powered tools such as Intuit Assist, capable of offering insights and automating financial tasks for businesses, is expected to drive higher adoption rates of Intuit's services, boosting revenue and potentially improving net margins through increased operational efficiency.
  
• The introduction of the Intuit Enterprise Suite aims to capture the mid-market segment with high ARPC offerings, addressing complex business needs and potentially increasing overall revenue and margins.
  
• Intuit's targeted marketing strategies, particularly to disrupt the assisted tax category, are crafted to enhance customer acquisition and drive monetization of the Consumer platform, influencing both revenue and earnings positively.
  
• Continued investments in expanding go-to-market capabilities for the mid-market, including the hiring of new sales personnel, are expected to accelerate growth in customer acquisition and service adoption, which should contribute to revenue and earnings in the longer term.

Intuit Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Intuit's revenue will grow by 13.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 17.6% today to 21.9% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $5.3 billion (and earnings per share of $18.39) by about December 2027, up from $2.9 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $4.4 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 48.3x on those 2027 earnings, down from 65.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 42.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.75% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.03%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Intuit Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Intuit is encountering higher churn from smaller customers within its Mailchimp business, which may affect customer retention and revenue growth over time.
  
• The CEO noted that there was a 17% decline in Desktop Ecosystem revenue due to changes in its offerings, which could impact overall revenue unless offset by growth in online services.
  
• Intuit faces execution risks in its disruption and strategy to penetrate the mid-market, potentially affecting customer acquisition costs and ARPC (Average Revenue Per Customer).
  
• There is a risk of increased costs and uncertain ROI from initial marketing campaigns and sales hires aimed at expanding the customer base, which could pressure short-term net margins.
  
• Restructuring charges and potential losses from investments, as seen with a $42 million net loss on a private company investment, can impact net margins and earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $726.01 for Intuit based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $800.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $581.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $24.0 billion, earnings will come to $5.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 48.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.0%.
• Given the current share price of $677.77, the analyst's price target of $726.01 is 6.6% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.