AI-powered Cybersecurity And Identity Protection Will Attract More Customers In The Future

Key Takeaways

• Gen Digital's AI-driven product expansion and identity protection services are expected to boost customer demand and enhance revenue and net income margins.
  
• A focus on direct customer growth, retention, and disciplined capital allocation aims to improve lifetime customer value and earnings per share.
  
• Increased reliance on AI for cybersecurity, potential market saturation, and subscription vulnerability pose risks to revenue and profitability growth.

Catalysts

Engages in the provision of cyber safety solutions for consumers in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan.

• Gen Digital is expanding its innovative AI-driven product offerings like the Genie anti-scam tool, which could enhance customer value and drive higher revenue through product upgrades and cross-sell opportunities.
  
• The company is focused on increasing its direct customer base and improving retention rates, which should bolster future revenue growth and lifetime customer value.
  
• Strong international and mobile market expansion efforts are expected to continue contributing to customer growth and increased adoption of Gen Digital's products, impacting revenue positively.
  
• Gen Digital's strategic focus on identity protection services, heightened by recent high-profile data breaches, is likely to drive increased customer demand and improve revenue and net income margins through higher-value service offerings.
  
• The company is committed to disciplined capital allocation, balancing debt repayment and share buybacks, which should support ongoing improvements in earnings per share by returning value to shareholders.

Gen Digital Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Gen Digital's revenue will grow by 2.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 16.2% today to 29.9% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.3 billion (and earnings per share of $1.96) by about December 2027, up from $624.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.4 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.1 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.1x on those 2027 earnings, down from 29.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 42.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.28% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.05%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Gen Digital Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The increasing reliance on AI for cybersecurity solutions might not keep pace with the evolving sophistication of cyber threats, which could lead to reduced consumer trust and impact revenue growth.
  
• Despite strong current performance, there's a risk of market saturation in identity protection services, especially if consumer awareness and urgency to adopt such products wane, potentially affecting new customer acquisition and revenue.
  
• The company has a sizeable portion of its revenue tied to subscription models, which makes its financials vulnerable to retention rate fluctuations; a decline in retention could adversely impact future earnings.
  
• The company's expansion strategy includes a focus on international and mobile markets, which carries execution risk and could incur higher operational costs, potentially compressing net margins if not managed effectively.
  
• Continued pressure on operating margins due to increased costs in customer acquisition and marketing could limit profitability growth, affecting the company's ability to maintain its projected earnings growth trajectory.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $31.23 for Gen Digital based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $37.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $21.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $4.2 billion, earnings will come to $1.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
• Given the current share price of $29.38, the analyst's price target of $31.23 is 5.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.