Edge Data Center Demand Will Drive Long Term Opportunity In This AI Infrastructure Provider

Catalysts

About Duos Technologies Group

Duos Technologies Group develops and deploys modular Edge Data Centers and related infrastructure solutions that bring high performance compute and connectivity closer to end users.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• The rapid expansion of AI workloads and cloud services is pushing hyperscalers toward distributed, lower power Edge deployments. This positions Duos' modular data centers to pursue larger contracts and recurring site revenues, which may support sustained top line growth and improving gross margins.
• Power grid constraints and long lead times for large scale data centers are driving demand for smaller, fast to deploy 300 kW pods. This enables Duos to turn backlog into revenue more quickly and may enhance cash conversion and earnings visibility.
• The shift from legacy on premises infrastructure in underserved Tier 3 and Tier 4 markets to carrier dense regional hubs is creating durable demand for Duos' mini carrier hotel model. This approach can increase utilization rates, potentially boost high margin recurring revenue and expand net margins over time.
• The creation of Duos Technology Solutions as a strategic sourcing partner for data center equipment allows the company to internalize procurement, deepen manufacturer relationships and add higher margin product revenue streams that diversify away from the APR Asset Management Agreement. This may support earnings stability after 2026.
• The patented clean room entryway and waterless, on grid design provide a differentiated solution for regulated industries such as finance and health care. This can enable Duos to compete for premium priced SOC 2 compliant deployments that may lift average revenue per site and support a structurally higher earnings profile.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Duos Technologies Group's revenue will grow by 66.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -52.8% today to 2.6% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.2 million (and earnings per share of $-0.16) by about December 2028, up from $-10.0 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 163.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -18.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 32.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The Asset Management Agreement with APR Energy is a short duration, 2 year contract that already contributes the majority of high margin recurring revenue. Its conclusion in 2026 could create a material step down in services revenue and gross margin if Edge Data Center and sourcing revenues do not scale fast enough to fill the gap, pressuring earnings and net margins over the medium term.
• The strategy assumes an ongoing arms race for AI compute and sustained build out of data center infrastructure in Tier 3 and Tier 4 markets. A slowdown in AI investment, power permitting, or macro IT spending would directly reduce demand for new pods and equipment sourcing, undermining revenue growth and limiting operating leverage improvements needed to move from adjusted EBITDA profitability to true net income profitability.
• Duos is rapidly pivoting from a historically flat Rail business to a capital intensive, highly competitive Edge Data Center and equipment procurement model. Execution missteps such as delays in deploying the targeted 15 pods, under utilization of installed capacity, or weaker than expected customer uptake in new geographies would depress recurring utilization driven revenue and delay the path to positive net margins.
• The business model increasingly depends on a concentrated set of large counterparties, including APR Energy and a small number of hyperscalers, developers, and education systems. Any contract non renewal, customer specific slowdown, or pricing pressure could create volatility in the current $26 million backlog and near term awards, driving lumpier revenue recognition and constraining earnings visibility.
• Duos is scaling quickly after recent capital raises, with operating expenses rising, stock based compensation adding significant noncash costs, and a leadership transition underway in the CFO role. If cost discipline slips or new initiatives like Duos Technology Solutions fail to achieve the anticipated higher margin profile, the company risks reverting to widening operating and net losses despite strong top line growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $11.5 for Duos Technologies Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $87.1 million, earnings will come to $2.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 163.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.5%.
  
• Given the current share price of $9.03, the analyst price target of $11.5 is 21.5% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.