AI Commerce And Embedded Payments Will Unlock Powerful Long Term Upside

Catalysts

About Commerce.com

Commerce.com provides an open, modular commerce platform that powers AI driven, data centric ecommerce for B2C and B2B brands worldwide.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Accelerating shift toward AI driven, conversational product discovery across answer engines and agents is increasing the value of the Commerce.com data centric Feedonomics platform, supporting higher subscription revenue, data product upsells and revenue share over time.
• Growing complexity of selling across marketplaces, social channels and emerging agent led shopping surfaces positions unified feed and order orchestration as mission critical infrastructure, driving broader adoption of a la carte and bundled offerings that can expand average revenue per account and gross profit dollars.
• Structural migration of large brands and manufacturers to digital first B2B commerce, validated by third party ROI studies and recent enterprise wins, creates a long runway for high value platform deployments that support durable ARR growth and improving net margins.
• Rising merchant demand for low code, AI optimized storefronts and site experiences makes Makeswift on Stencil and potential cross platform distribution a scalable product led growth engine that can lift subscription revenue and add incremental high margin design and experience fees.
• Industry wide move toward embedded, platform native payments combined with PayPal and other payments partnerships gives Commerce.com a clear path to monetize payment volume more deeply, enhancing take rate economics, earnings power and cash generation as adoption ramps.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Commerce.com compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bullish analysts are assuming Commerce.com's revenue will grow by 5.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts are not forecasting that Commerce.com will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Commerce.com's profit margin will increase from -3.9% to the average US IT industry of 7.0% in 3 years.
• If Commerce.com's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $27.5 million (and earnings per share of $0.31) by about December 2028, up from $-13.4 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 48.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -26.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US IT industry at 29.6x.
• The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.39% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.53%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The secular shift of large brands toward AI and agent led discovery may prioritize data control and first party ecosystems. This could limit adoption of Commerce.com’s open, platform agnostic model and put structural pressure on long term revenue growth.
• Enterprise ARR is only growing at 2% year over year and has shown sequential softness. This suggests that high value platform deals and upsells may not be keeping pace with expectations, which would constrain future earnings expansion.
• As more ecommerce platforms and answer engines race to integrate AI and agentic commerce, Commerce.com’s data quality advantage in Feedonomics could erode. This could compress pricing power on data products and cap improvements in net margins.
• New monetization vectors such as product led growth via Feedonomics Surface and embedded payments with PayPal require sustained merchant adoption at scale. If these rollouts underdeliver or are slow to gain traction, incremental revenue and operating leverage could fall short of projections.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bullish price target for Commerce.com is $11.0, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $7.14. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Commerce.com's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $11.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $5.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $393.6 million, earnings will come to $27.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 48.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.5%.
  
• Given the current share price of $4.3, the analyst price target of $11.0 is 60.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.