BTDR: Expanding Power Portfolio Will Unlock Competitive Advantage Amid AI Infrastructure Shift

Analysts have modestly trimmed their fair value estimate for Bitdeer Technologies Group to approximately $34.15 from about $34.79 per share. This reflects a slightly higher discount rate, even as they highlight continued upside from the company’s expanding power capacity, accelerating self-mining revenue, and diversified growth opportunities.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts remain constructive on Bitdeer Technologies Group’s medium term trajectory, pointing to stronger than expected Q3 results and a rapidly scaling self mining footprint as key drivers of upside to current valuation assumptions.

Despite ongoing volatility in both bitcoin prices and hosting demand, analysts see Bitdeer as well positioned to monetize its growing power capacity and to benefit from broader sector tailwinds tied to data center and AI related power scarcity.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that Q3 revenue meaningfully exceeded prior expectations, driven primarily by a 315 percent year over year and 120 percent quarter over quarter surge in self mining bitcoin revenue. This reinforces confidence in Bitdeer’s ability to execute on growth plans.
• Recent price target increases into the 30 dollar plus range are being justified by expectations that Bitdeer will continue to expand power capacity and reallocate freed hosting capacity toward higher margin self mining, which in turn supports multiple expansion.
• Sector research emphasizing that power is the key strategic asset in the current AI and data center build out cycle is viewed as a structural positive for operators with sizable power portfolios. Bitdeer is cited among the names likely to benefit from ongoing re ratings.
• Analysts see diversification across self mining, hosting, and potential AI or high performance computing use cases as a supportive factor for longer term revenue visibility. This is viewed as helping to underpin fair value estimates even under conservative bitcoin price scenarios.

Bearish Takeaways

• More cautious analysts flag the decline in General Hosting revenue following contract roll offs and reduced activity from customers operating older rigs. They view this as a reminder that hosting remains exposed to client capex cycles and hardware efficiency trends.
• As management prioritizes reallocating power toward self mining, some see execution risk around maintaining a balanced mix between stable hosting cash flows and more volatile proprietary mining earnings. This could introduce greater earnings variability.
• While broader sector commentary is constructive on power rich operators, there is concern that expectations for continued re ratings may already embed optimistic assumptions on future AI and data center demand. This is seen as leaving limited room for missteps in project execution or permitting.
• With valuation now more closely tied to sustained high utilization of power assets, any delays in ramping new capacity, securing colocation agreements, or monetizing AI related demand could pressure the recent upward revisions to price targets and fair value estimates.

What's in the News

• A shareholder class action lawsuit was filed alleging Bitdeer misled investors about the development timeline and efficiency claims of its SEAL04 chip intended for A4 rigs. The lead plaintiff deadline is February 2, 2026 (Key Developments).
• Bitdeer filed a follow-on equity offering for approximately $148.6 million via a registered direct sale of 10.66 million Class A ordinary shares, priced around 13.94 dollars per share (Key Developments).
• The third quarter 2025 operating update showed total hash rate under management nearly tripled year over year to 49.2 EH/s, with self-mining bitcoin production more than doubling to 1,109 coins (Key Developments).
• Subsequent unaudited metrics for September and October 2025 indicated continued scaling, with self-mining reaching 452 bitcoins in September and 511 bitcoins in October, alongside hash rate growth to 55.5 EH/s (Key Developments).
• The company launched the SEALMINER A3 series of self-developed Bitcoin mining rigs, including air-cooled and hydro-cooled models. The series is highlighted by the A3 Pro Hydro, which offers up to 660 TH/s and improved power efficiency aimed at lowering operating costs for large-scale miners (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate decreased slightly to approximately $34.15 per share from about $34.79 per share.
• Discount Rate risen modestly to roughly 8.98 percent from about 8.73 percent, reflecting a marginally higher perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth Assumption effectively unchanged at about 89.72 percent, indicating no material revision to top line expansion expectations.
• Net Profit Margin effectively unchanged at around 13.65 percent, suggesting stable expectations for underlying profitability.
• Future P/E Multiple edged down slightly to roughly 25.3 times from about 25.6 times, implying a modestly more conservative valuation multiple.