Conversational AI And Cloud Computing Will Transform Digital Interactions

Key Takeaways

• Agora's rapid AI-driven expansion positions it as a leading platform for real-time digital interaction across high-growth global industries and markets.
  
• Proven developer traction and strategic focus on cloud, APIs, and emerging markets set the stage for sustained, high-margin revenue and reduced customer churn.
  
• Geopolitical tensions, intensifying competition, and reliance on concentrated markets threaten Agora's revenue growth, margins, and long-term stability despite efforts to shift toward higher-value AI products.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of a real-time engagement platform-as-a-service in the United States, the People’s Republic of China, and internationally.

• Analyst consensus points to generative AI as a revenue driver, but the pace and breadth of adoption could be grossly underestimated: Agora's advanced conversational AI-featuring vision-based intelligence, attention locking, and interactive avatars-has already demonstrated strong developer traction and is being rapidly deployed beyond proof-of-concept in high-volume industries like call centers and consumer toys, implying exponential revenue acceleration as these features unlock previously unaddressable markets.
  
• While analysts broadly expect the rollout of conversational AI and TEN to support gradual growth, evidence from real-world deployments (such as powering thousands of agent calls per day for a major food delivery platform and outperforming competitors in AI toys) suggests Agora could evolve into the de facto platform for real-time, human-like AI interactions globally, leading to an upward re-rating in both addressable market size and sustainable revenue growth trajectory.
  
• Agora appears uniquely positioned to capitalize on the accelerating shift to real-time digital communication, with its developer-first API approach and scalable cloud infrastructure allowing rapid penetration into high-growth regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America-this global expansion can result in a compounding effect on both active customer count and average revenue per user.
  
• The transition from on-premises to cloud-based solutions and increased demand for embedded API communication across telehealth, fintech, live shopping, and education is set to drive durable, high-margin growth at Agora, given its proven ability to deliver enterprise-grade performance and integrated AI capabilities at scale, directly supporting sustained margin improvement.
  
• As digital transformation surges in emerging markets, Agora's early wins and ongoing investments in tailored solutions for local needs put it far ahead of rivals in establishing long-standing relationships, reducing churn and building operational leverage, which is likely to materially boost both net income and free cash flow as these markets mature.

Agora Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Agora compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Agora's revenue will grow by 11.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -16.6% today to 23.8% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $43.7 million (and earnings per share of $0.48) by about August 2028, up from $-22.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -15.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.47% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.95%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Agora Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Heightened geopolitical tensions and growing regulatory scrutiny of China-based tech companies may lead to increased compliance costs and barriers to Western markets, potentially limiting Agora's international revenue growth and expansion opportunities over the long term.
  
• Intensifying global and domestic competition, especially from large integrated communication platforms and open-source alternatives, could erode Agora's pricing power and gross margins, leading to slower revenue growth and reduced profitability.
  
• The persistent trend toward API commoditization in real-time communications, combined with the increasing ability of enterprise customers to develop in-house solutions using edge computing, may suppress average selling prices and customer retention, which would directly constrain revenue and net margins.
  
• Ongoing reliance on a limited set of large customers and geographic concentration, particularly in China, exposes Agora to revenue volatility and downside risk from macroeconomic shocks or regulatory changes specific to those markets, threatening long-term revenue stability.
  
• Transitioning to higher-value conversational AI products introduces margin uncertainty, as initial ramp-up, testing, and prototyping costs could drag on gross margins, and future industry shifts or technical failures might prevent these products from achieving the expected upward impact on net earnings.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Agora is $7.4, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Agora's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $7.4, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $5.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $183.8 million, earnings will come to $43.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.9%.
  
• Given the current share price of $3.67, the bullish analyst price target of $7.4 is 50.4% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.