Alarm.com Holdings

Rising Compliance Burdens And Supply Issues Will Compress Margins

AnalystLowTarget

Not Invested

Community Contributor

Published

05 May 25

Updated

12 Dec 25

Views

n/a

AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value

n/a

-14.1%

2.3%

-14.1%

2.3%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 13 3:10 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$554.3% undervalued

AnalystLowTarget Fair Value

Narrative

Updates2

Shared on 12 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 10%

ALRM: Product Expansion And Share Buybacks Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on Alarm.com Holdings by 10.0 percent, from 50 dollars to 55 dollars, citing slightly higher long term profit margin and valuation assumptions despite somewhat slower projected revenue growth. What's in the News Launched a low cost Video Intercom Mobile Directory that modernizes multi tenant visitor management with QR code access, mobile video calling, and remote door control, reducing the need for in unit hardware (Key Developments).

Shared on 08 May 25

AnalystLowTarget Fair Value

US$55

4.3% undervalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

3.97%

Software revenue growth rate

1.21%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

9.61%

Calculation

US$148.46m

Earnings '28

24.41x

PE Ratio '28

US$3.62b

Market Cap '28

US$3.62b

Market Cap '28

50.58m

No. shares '28

US$71.65

Share Price '28

US$71.65 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 9.64% p.a.

US$54.36

Fair Value '25