Risks
- Intel is facing strong competition from AMD in x86 structure
- Intel is also facing emerging competition from Qualcomm and ARM; If MSFT ecosystem adopted ARM (and I think it will eventually due to leadership in energy efficiency), INTC's 50+ years of advantage in CPU will erode significantly
- INTC is showing the limit of its chip design as problems begin to appear in its latest 14th gen chipset
Assumptions
- Intels' Foundry outsourcing strategy will not likely to work due to conflict of interest - it will likely sell the business at low price or write it down
- To achieve high yield, foundry business require large scale and deep expertise, both Intel is unmatched to TSMC
- Intel is unlike to catch up to TSMC in the future because of the difference in work culture between TW and US and the amount of effort the Taiwanese government is willing to support TSMC - TSMC (and semiconductor in general) is the only jewel of TW and its government will do whatever it can to defend and improve it
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