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Intel is very overvalued and future outlook looks extremely grim

QU
QuintusWayNot Invested
Community Contributor

Published

September 16 2024

Updated

September 16 2024

Narratives are currently in beta

Risks

  • Intel is facing strong competition from AMD in x86 structure
  • Intel is also facing emerging competition from Qualcomm and ARM; If MSFT ecosystem adopted ARM (and I think it will eventually due to leadership in energy efficiency), INTC's 50+ years of advantage in CPU will erode significantly
  • INTC is showing the limit of its chip design as problems begin to appear in its latest 14th gen chipset

Assumptions

  • Intels' Foundry outsourcing strategy will not likely to work due to conflict of interest - it will likely sell the business at low price or write it down
  • To achieve high yield, foundry business require large scale and deep expertise, both Intel is unmatched to TSMC
  • Intel is unlike to catch up to TSMC in the future because of the difference in work culture between TW and US and the amount of effort the Taiwanese government is willing to support TSMC - TSMC (and semiconductor in general) is the only jewel of TW and its government will do whatever it can to defend and improve it

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Disclaimer

The user QuintusWay holds no position in NasdaqGS:INTC. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
US$11.4
76.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
QuintusWay's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture-922m79b2013201620192022202420252027Revenue US$48.8bEarnings US$1.5b
% p.a.
Decrease
Increase
Current revenue growth rate
4.42%
Semiconductors revenue growth rate
0.96%