AXTI: Export Permit Uncertainty Will Challenge Margin Strength Moving Forward

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

02 May 25

Updated

14 Dec 25

Views

255

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

656.5%

7D

-21.2%

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1Y

656.5%

7D

-21.2%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 15 10:10 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$9.583.2% overvalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 14 Dec 25

AXTI: New Export Permits Will Intensify Regulatory And Execution Downside Risks

Analysts have raised their price target on AXT by approximately $2.90 per share to around $7.00, citing improved revenue expectations after the company received new export permits that enable it to resume shipping indium phosphide substrates to additional customers. Analyst Commentary Analysts are updating their models ahead of upcoming quarterly results, reflecting the impact of newly granted export permits on AXT's near term revenue and margin profile.

Shared on 30 Nov 25

AXTI: Export Permit Reliance Will Heighten Downside Risks Amid Ongoing Uncertainty

Analysts have increased their price target for AXT to $7 from $4.10, citing higher anticipated revenues because the company recently obtained export permits that allow it to ship indium phosphide substrates to additional customers. Analyst Commentary Recent updates from the analyst community reflect a reassessment of AXT's growth prospects and financial outlook following the news about new export permits for indium phosphide substrates.

Shared on 16 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 67%

AXTI: Renewed Export Permits Will Influence Recovery Amid Regulatory Risks

Analysts have raised AXT's fair value estimate significantly from $5.70 to $9.50 per share, citing improved revenue assumptions following renewed export permits and a higher price target in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Analyst reactions to AXT's recent developments have brought both optimism and caution regarding the company's future prospects and valuation.

Shared on 02 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 49%

The analyst price target for AXT has increased significantly from $3.82 to $5.70 per share, as analysts cite improved revenue growth expectations and recent export permit approvals as key drivers behind their revised outlook. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment regarding AXT has evolved in response to recent company developments, with notable optimism about future growth prospects.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$9.5

83.2% overvalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

27.08%

Semiconductors revenue growth rate

1.12%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

10.82%

Calculation

US$19.69m

Earnings '28

x

30.25x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$595.70m

Market Cap '28

US$595.70m

Market Cap '28

/

46.90m

No. shares '28

=

US$12.70

Share Price '28

US$12.70 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 10.88% p.a.

=

US$9.32

Fair Value '25