Homeowners Tapping $35 Trillion In Equity Will Boost Home Improvement Demand

Key Takeaways

• Growth in Pro and online sales, driven by investments, is set to enhance revenue and earnings through increased customer engagement.
  
• Strategic investments in digital and store infrastructure aim to boost long-term revenue growth and market share in the recovering home improvement market.
  
• Macroeconomic challenges, competition, and natural disasters could strain Lowe's revenue growth, margins, and profitability, with pressure from consumer spending limitations and increased costs.

Catalysts

Operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States.

• Continued growth in Pro and online sales, driven by investments in Pro inventory depth, Pro loyalty programs, and enhanced digital experiences, is expected to positively impact revenue and earnings.
  
• The MyLowe's Rewards loyalty program, launched in March, aims to increase customer engagement and repeat purchases, potentially boosting revenue through tailored offers and promotions.
  
• As homeowners tap into the $35 trillion in home equity for larger projects when interest rate pressures ease, revenue and margins are expected to benefit from increased home improvement demand.
  
• Ongoing productivity improvement initiatives (PPI) and cost management strategies are anticipated to enhance net margins and operational efficiency.
  
• Strategic capital investments in digital infrastructure and store enhancements are positioning the company for long-term revenue growth and market share gains as the home improvement market recovers.

Lowe's Companies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Lowe's Companies's revenue will grow by 2.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.2% today to 8.9% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $8.1 billion (and earnings per share of $15.15) by about December 2027, up from $6.8 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $6.7 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 23.1x on those 2027 earnings, up from 21.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Specialty Retail industry at 16.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.79% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.32%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Lowe's Companies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Weak demand for DIY discretionary bigger ticket projects continues, and it is unclear when consumer sentiment will improve, which could impact future revenue growth for Lowe's.
  
• High interest rates and the resulting low housing turnover present ongoing challenges that pressure consumer wallets, potentially affecting earnings negatively as consumer affordability remains an issue.
  
• Increased competition and the need for promotional activities to drive traffic and sales during holiday seasons might compress net margins as Lowe's works to maintain its market position.
  
• Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflation and potential changes in tariffs, could raise costs and impact Lowe's profitability and earnings in the coming fiscal periods.
  
• The negative impact of hurricanes and storm-related pressures, including costs associated with recovery efforts, infrastructure losses, and a margin shift towards lower-margin products, could strain net margins and financial performance.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $283.15 for Lowe's Companies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $316.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $216.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $90.9 billion, earnings will come to $8.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 23.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
• Given the current share price of $257.75, the analyst's price target of $283.15 is 9.0% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.