Auto Credit Trends And Digital Expansion Will Shape Dealer Reach Ahead

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

29 Sep 24

Updated

06 Dec 25

Views

343

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-51.1%

7D

4.1%

Loading

1Y

-51.1%

7D

4.1%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 7 11:05 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$39.772.2% overvalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 06 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 0.16%

KMX: Future Recovery Will Hinge On Loan Loss And Credit Normalization

Analysts have trimmed their CarMax price target slightly, reflecting a modest reset in fair value to about $40 per share as they factor in weaker unit trends, persistent credit headwinds, and increased uncertainty around the company’s strategic execution. Analyst Commentary Research coverage around CarMax has tilted more cautious in recent weeks, with multiple firms cutting price targets and downgrading ratings as they recalibrate expectations for growth, margins, and credit performance.

Shared on 22 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 27%

KMX: Recovery Will Depend On Resolution Of Loan Loss Headwinds

CarMax's analyst price target has been reduced significantly from approximately $55 to $40 per share, as analysts cite weaker revenue growth, margin compression, and persistent headwinds in retail trends and credit quality. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst coverage on CarMax reflects a divided outlook in the wake of disappointing financial results and evolving market dynamics.

Shared on 07 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 1.54%

KMX: Future Recovery Will Rely on Easing Loan Loss Pressures

CarMax's analyst price target has been lowered significantly, with the consensus now reflecting a cut of more than $20 per share. Analysts cite continued earnings misses, weaker retail sales, and growing uncertainty around the company’s recovery outlook.

Shared on 24 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 3.96%

CarMax’s analyst fair value target has been lowered from $57.79 to $55.50. Analysts cite continued softness in earnings, elevated loan losses, and weaker retail sales forecasts following recent quarterly results.

Shared on 10 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 25%

CarMax's fair value estimate has been revised sharply lower, dropping from $76.93 to $57.79. Analysts point to mounting sales uncertainty, downward earnings revisions, and lack of visible turnaround strategies following weaker-than-expected Q2 results and multiple price target cuts across the Street.

Shared on 26 Sep 25

Fair value Decreased 5.53%

CarMax’s consensus price target has been reduced from $81.44 to $76.93 as weaker-than-expected Q2 results, increased uncertainty around future strategy, and ongoing operating headwinds overshadow cautious optimism regarding operational improvements and growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Weak Q2 results, including a broad earnings miss and underperformance across key metrics, have raised doubts about CarMax's ability to sustain market leadership and deliver additional growth.

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Decreased 2.27%

Shared on 30 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.68%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 16 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 8.39%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 3.6% to 3.0%, decreased profit margin from 3.4% to 2.6% and increased future PE multiple from 16.8x to 20.6x.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.66%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.21%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 0.14%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 8.51%

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased revenue growth from 2.7% to 3.4%, increased profit margin from 2.6% to 3.4% and decreased future PE multiple from 20.8x to 17.0x.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$39.77

2.2% overvalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

-1.79%

Specialty Stores revenue growth rate

0.29%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

12.50%

Calculation

US$819.59m

Earnings '28

x

8.77x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$7.19b

Market Cap '28

US$7.19b

Market Cap '28

/

127.81m

No. shares '28

=

US$56.27

Share Price '28

US$56.27 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 12.50% p.a.

=

US$39.52

Fair Value '25