Festy And Nightball Sub-Brands Will Diversify Product Assortment In 2025

Key Takeaways

• Strategic diversification with new sub-brands aims to improve margins and attract younger customers, enhancing customer growth and broadening consumer appeal.
  
• Optimizing store fleet and strategic inventory management aim to reduce costs, support sustainable revenue growth, and maintain gross margin stability.
  
• Efforts to optimize the real estate portfolio and manage cost pressures may impact Torrid Holdings' profitability amidst macroeconomic uncertainties and sales volatility.

Catalysts

Operates in women’s plus-size apparel and intimates market in North America.

• Torrid Holdings is poised to enhance its product assortment significantly in fiscal 2025, with more new items introduced in the first half of the year than in the past six years. This strategic shift aims to broaden consumer appeal and increase its customer base, potentially driving revenue growth.
  
• The launch of new sub-brands, including Festy, Nightball, and Retroshik, offers higher margins and attracts younger customers, indicating a strategy to improve net margins and customer growth by diversifying the portfolio and appealing to a broader audience.
  
• Optimizing the store fleet by closing underperforming stores is expected to reduce fixed costs, freeing up capital for growth investments and potentially improving net margins and earnings over the long term.
  
• Torrid's focus on integrated marketing initiatives, including influencer programs and storytelling, intends to drive customer engagement and growth, which could positively impact revenue as brand awareness and loyalty increase.
  
• Strategic inventory management and a shift towards a more profitable product mix, involving a 10% allocation of total receipt investment for sub-brands, indicate a disciplined approach to maintaining gross margin stability and supporting sustainable revenue growth.

Torrid Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Torrid Holdings's revenue will decrease by 0.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are assuming Torrid Holdings's profit margins will remain the same at 1.5% over the next 3 years.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $16.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.16) by about April 2028, down from $16.3 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 48.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 34.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Specialty Retail industry at 16.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.49% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Torrid Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Torrid Holdings is operationally affected by macroeconomic uncertainty and consumer behavior volatility, potentially impacting revenue stability and growth.
  
• The company plans to close 40 to 50 stores in fiscal 2025 and is in the midst of optimizing its real estate portfolio, which could affect short-term revenue and require careful management to ensure long-term profitability.
  
• Gross profit decreased compared to the previous year, with gross margin declining by 90 basis points, which may indicate pressures on product pricing and potentially affect net margins.
  
• Torrid's approach to embedding new sub-brands and adjusting product mixes carries the risk of execution complexities and the balance of investments, potentially impacting earnings if not managed effectively.
  
• The dynamic tariff and sourcing landscape, along with potential changes in consumer spending patterns, could introduce additional cost pressures, affecting profitability and cash flow stability.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $5.56 for Torrid Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $7.8, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $4.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.1 billion, earnings will come to $16.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 48.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.5%.
• Given the current share price of $5.35, the analyst price target of $5.56 is 3.8% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.