Advance Auto Parts

Deteriorating Core Demand And Mounting Costs Will Erode Margins

AnalystLowTarget

Not Invested

Community Contributor

Published

13 Jul 25

Updated

12 Dec 25

Views

n/a

AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value

n/a

-1.4%

-14.3%

-1.4%

-14.3%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 13 1:05 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$34.5119.9% overvalued

AnalystLowTarget Fair Value

Narrative

Updates1

Shared on 12 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 3.02%

AAP: Higher Risk Profile Will Likely Limit Upside Despite Margin Improvement

Analysts have raised their price target on Advance Auto Parts by about 3 percent to approximately 34.51 dollars, citing improving revenue growth expectations, higher projected profit margins, and a more attractive future earnings multiple despite a slightly higher discount rate. What's in the News Advance Auto Parts raised its full year 2025 net sales guidance to a range of 8,550 million dollars to 8,600 million dollars, up from the prior 8,400 million dollars to 8,600 million dollars range (Company guidance filing).

AnalystLowTarget Fair Value

US$34.51

19.9% overvalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

1.73%

Specialty Stores revenue growth rate

0.30%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

12.50%

Calculation

US$298.12m

Earnings '28

9.89x

PE Ratio '28

US$2.95b

Market Cap '28

US$2.95b

Market Cap '28

60.72m

No. shares '28

US$48.55

Share Price '28

US$48.55 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 12.50% p.a.

US$34.10

Fair Value '25