AvalonBay Communities

Upper-Tier Apartment Developments Will Shape Returns Amid Sector Rotation Risks

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

08 Aug 24

Updated

10 Dec 25

Views

76

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-17.5%

7D

2.8%

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1Y

-17.5%

7D

2.8%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 11 9:10 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$203.7911.1% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 10 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 1.02%

AVB: Share Repurchase Program Will Support Returns Despite Softer Leasing Spreads

AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has been nudged lower to about $204 from roughly $206, as analysts factor in faster than expected leasing spread deterioration, softer apartment fundamentals into 2026, modestly weaker margin and growth assumptions, and a slightly higher future earnings multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mixed but slightly more cautious stance on AvalonBay Communities, with pricing targets shifting both higher and lower as analysts recalibrate expectations for earnings growth and operating performance into 2026.

Shared on 26 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 1.58%

AVB: Share Repurchase Program Will Drive Returns Amid Sector Headwinds

AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has decreased by approximately $3.31 to $205.88, as analysts cite weaker-than-anticipated leasing spreads, rising operating expenses, and ongoing headwinds for the multifamily REIT sector. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates reflect a mix of cautious and optimistic sentiment surrounding AvalonBay Communities, with price targets both reduced and slightly raised in light of earnings performance and projected sector dynamics.

Shared on 11 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 3.37%

AVB: Upcoming $2.9 Billion Development Pipeline Will Drive Future Upside

AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has been revised downward from $216.48 to $209.19. Analysts point to weakening leasing spreads, higher operating expenses, and tempered earnings outlooks amid challenging sector fundamentals.

Shared on 28 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 0.44%

AvalonBay Communities’ analyst price target saw a slight decrease of $0.95 to $216.48 as analysts weighed recent upgrades and downgrades, along with updated earnings growth expectations and ongoing development activity. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst activity for AvalonBay Communities has shown a range of perspectives, reflecting both optimism and caution regarding the company's outlook and market performance.

Shared on 13 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 1.01%

AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has been modestly reduced from $219.65 to $217.43 per share. This change reflects analysts' tempered expectations for profit margins and revenue growth following recent sector reviews.

Shared on 05 Sep 25

Analysts maintain a positive outlook on AvalonBay’s robust growth pipeline, favorable market positioning, and prospective sector rotation benefits, but given valuation now aligns with peers after recent underperformance, the consensus price target remains unchanged at $219.65. Analyst Commentary Increased confidence in AvalonBay’s “best in class” earnings growth, supported by a significant $2.9B development pipeline expected to contribute meaningfully to future results.

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Decreased 7.14%

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 2.48%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 5.3% to 4.5% and increased shares outstanding growth rate from 0.0% to 0.0%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$203.79

11.1% undervalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

4.36%

Residential REITs revenue growth rate

3.60%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

7.19%

Calculation

US$815.95m

Earnings '28

x

42.74x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$34.88b

Market Cap '28

US$34.88b

Market Cap '28

/

139.50m

No. shares '28

=

US$250.01

Share Price '28

US$250.01 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 7.18% p.a.

=

US$203.06

Fair Value '25