Pipeline Developments And Radiopharmaceutical Advances Will Extend Global Reach

Key Takeaways

• Stronger market adoption of DANYELZA and international expansion are expected to drive recurring revenue and broaden the patient base.
  
• Advancements in antibody engineering and rare oncology pipeline will support new product launches and profitable long-term growth.
  
• Persistent net losses, declining U.S. sales, and early-stage unprofitable ventures heighten revenue risks and potential dilution, while competitive and international uncertainties undermine long-term profitability.

Catalysts

A commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of radioimmunotherapy and antibody based therapeutic products for the treatment of cancer.

• Anticipated growth in global demand for precision oncology therapies and increased recognition of DANYELZA (notably its addition to the NCCN guidelines) are likely to drive higher patient adoption and market penetration, directly supporting revenue growth.
  
• Expansion of DANYELZA into new high-volume U.S. centers, increased international sales via new named patient programs, and the launch of investigator-sponsored trials are expected to broaden the company’s addressable patient population and support recurring revenue increases.
  
• Advancements in Y-mAbs’ antibody engineering platform (e.g., proprietary linker-chelator for radiopharmaceuticals) are poised to improve the efficacy and safety of the pipeline, potentially enabling multiple new product launches and expanding future revenue streams while strengthening long-term margins.
  
• Progress in deepening the rare oncology pipeline—including trials in osteosarcoma and relapsed/refractory non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma—as well as near-term radiopharmaceutical R&D updates, increases the probability of future high-value milestones and long-term earnings growth.
  
• Inclusion of DANYELZA in major treatment guidelines, combined with government incentives and strong orphan drug protections, should enhance pricing power and reimbursement, positively impacting net margins and free cash flow over time.

Y-mAbs Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Y-mAbs Therapeutics's revenue will grow by 12.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Y-mAbs Therapeutics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Y-mAbs Therapeutics's profit margin will increase from -26.0% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
• If Y-mAbs Therapeutics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $19.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.41) by about September 2028, up from $-22.2 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from -17.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.45% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Y-mAbs Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company's primary revenue driver, DANYELZA, experienced a significant 28% year-over-year decline in U.S. sales in Q1 2025 due to competitive pressures, slower new patient enrollment, and changing ordering patterns at key institutions—a trend that, if not reversed, could lead to continued revenue concentration risk and overall declining top-line growth.
  
• Y-mAbs continues to report net losses ($5.2 million in Q1 2025), and its ability to self-fund operations is limited to a runway through 2027; persistent net losses and the absence of licensing revenue signal a risk of future equity raises for capital, likely resulting in shareholder dilution and pressure on per-share earnings.
  
• The Radiopharmaceutical business unit remains solidly unprofitable and in early clinical development, with working capital primarily sourced from DANYELZA’s cash flows; setbacks or delays in Radiopharma clinical progress or failure to achieve regulatory milestones could further strain margins and impede medium
• and long-term profitability improvement.
  
• Competition in neuroblastoma and other pediatric oncology markets remains intense, including clinical trial enrollment competition and the entry or use of maintenance therapies; this could erode Y-mAbs’ market share, slow adoption, and keep pricing power under pressure—negatively affecting revenue and potentially gross margins.
  
• The company’s international revenues (ex-U.S. DANYELZA sales grew substantially in Q1 2025 based on named-patient programs and initial launches) may not be sustainable due to lack of recurring stock-ins, seasonality, and uncertain long-term market penetration, which introduces volatility to earnings and limits reliable free cash flow growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $8.6 for Y-mAbs Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $120.4 million, earnings will come to $19.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
• Given the current share price of $8.58, the analyst price target of $8.6 is 0.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.