A Subcutaneous Launch Will Unlock The Anti-CD20 MS Market

Key Takeaways

• The upcoming launch of subcutaneous BRIUMVI and expanded market access are set to drive substantial long-term revenue and sales growth.
  
• Strong commercial execution, demographic trends, and a lean operational model create pathways for ongoing market penetration and margin improvement.
  
• Overdependence on a single drug and limited pipeline diversification heighten risk from shifting market dynamics, pricing pressures, and intensifying competition in MS therapeutics.

Catalysts

A commercial stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel treatments for B-cell mediated diseases in the United States and internationally.

• The planned launch of subcutaneous (subcu) BRIUMVI is a significant upcoming catalyst, as it could unlock access to 35–40% of the anti-CD20 MS market segment currently dominated by self-administered therapies, greatly increasing BRIUMVI's addressable market and supporting long-term revenue growth.
  
• Demographic changes, such as the aging population and the rising prevalence of chronic diseases like multiple sclerosis, are expected to drive sustained demand for advanced therapeutics. This supports both ongoing expansion of BRIUMVI sales and future pipeline potential, positively impacting both top-line revenue and long-term earnings visibility.
  
• Strong commercial execution, as evidenced by increasing new patient enrollments, expanding prescriber and patient bases, and repeat prescribing rates exceeding expectations, suggests there is significant headroom for further market penetration and organic sales growth in the coming years.
  
• Broadening healthcare coverage, persistent expansion in patient access, and rising provider awareness (driven by multichannel media investments) are likely to boost uptake of high-value therapies like BRIUMVI, increasing the likelihood of continued revenue and earnings growth scalability.
  
• Advancements in healthcare innovation, the shift toward targeted and biologic therapies, and TG's lean operational model together enhance margin potential as product sales scale, indicating potential for future net margin improvement as revenue ramps up.

TG Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming TG Therapeutics's revenue will grow by 39.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 13.3% today to 38.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $469.0 million (and earnings per share of $2.85) by about August 2028, up from $60.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $525 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $276.6 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 67.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 14.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.7% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

TG Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company's heavy reliance on BRIUMVI as its primary revenue driver leaves it vulnerable to competitive threats, shifting payer preferences, or changes in MS treatment guidelines-any disruption here could sharply impact both revenue and earnings stability in the long term.
  
• Ongoing and intensifying pressure from payers for self-administered, lower-cost therapies (e.g., subcutaneous formulations) could accelerate a market shift away from IV therapies, risking margin compression and putting downward pressure on net pricing and future revenue growth as payers push for cost savings.
  
• TG's limited pipeline diversification, with only early-stage assets (notably a CAR-T program in progressive MS and exploration in myasthenia gravis), exposes it to high risk should BRIUMVI's market trajectory falter or should new launches face clinical or regulatory setbacks, threatening future revenue streams and increasing R&D expenses.
  
• The rapid expansion in MS therapeutics and anti-CD20 competition, including biosimilars and new oral or subcutaneous agents from larger incumbents, could erode BRIUMVI's market share, heightening price competition and reducing prospective revenue and long-term market share.
  
• Increased exposure to mandatory government discounting and healthcare reimbursement reforms (including 340B and value-based models) may lead to persistent gross-to-net pressure and declining net margins, directly impacting profitability as TG's hospital segment grows and as payers more aggressively scrutinize high-cost specialty drugs.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $40.5 for TG Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $53.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $11.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.2 billion, earnings will come to $469.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
• Given the current share price of $27.87, the analyst price target of $40.5 is 31.2% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.