Proteomics Placements And New Platform Pipeline Will Reshape Long-Term Potential

Catalysts

About Quantum-Si

Quantum-Si develops single molecule protein sequencing platforms and consumables for proteomics research across academic, government and commercial labs.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• The placement program is putting more Platinum instruments into high value labs without upfront capital spend, including academic centers that have been harder to reach in 2025. This can expand the installed base and support higher recurring consumables revenue over time.
• Growing engagement with leading institutions such as the Broad Institute and major Department of Defense labs increases real world usage and data generation for the platform. This can support consumable volumes and potentially lift overall revenue quality as usage matures.
• A focused push on scientific affairs, including 5 manuscripts submitted in 2025, 2 already published and a deeper pipeline of studies into 2026, can build third party validation that supports instrument demand and higher consumables pull through. This in turn may help gross margin stability.
• Progress on the Proteus platform, with multiple prototype systems already performing sequencing runs using current chemistry and a clear road map of milestones discussed for 2026, sets up a new product cycle that can broaden applications and, if adopted, influence long term revenue scale and earnings potential.
• Advances in the version 4 sequencing kit and the upcoming version 3 library preparation kit, including expanded amino acid detection, 24 barcodes and at least a 100 fold reduction in sample input needs, aim to widen the range of addressable experiments and sample types. This supports higher consumables usage and a path to improved net margins as volumes build.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Quantum-Si compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bullish analysts are assuming Quantum-Si's revenue will grow by 223.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts are not forecasting that Quantum-Si will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Quantum-Si's profit margin will increase from -3678.0% to the average US Life Sciences industry of 15.7% in 3 years.
• If Quantum-Si's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $16.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.06) by about January 2029, up from $-116.8 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 79.8x on those 2029 earnings, up from -2.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Life Sciences industry at 37.1x.
• The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.79%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Revenue today is still modest, with Q3 2025 revenue at US$552,000 and US$2.0 million for the first nine months of 2025. The company is leaning heavily on a placement model that does not bring in instrument revenue upfront, so if consumable pull through from these placements is slower than hoped, overall revenue and gross profit could remain small relative to the cost base.
• NIH funding uncertainty and the government shutdown are already affecting academic customers, and management highlights continued capital headwinds and rescinded grants. If flat or weaker long term public research funding persists, demand from a key end market for both instruments and consumables could stay soft, which could pressure revenue growth and limit any improvement in net margins.
• Proteus is on an aggressive development timeline and still has major hurdles around scaling prototypes into fully integrated, manufactured systems and optimizing chemistry and library prep. Any delays, technical setbacks or lower than expected performance at launch could reduce customer adoption and weigh on future earnings that bullish assumptions depend on.
• The company is investing heavily in R&D and go to market while GAAP operating expenses for the first nine months of 2025 are US$96.0 million against US$2.0 million of revenue. Although adjusted operating expenses are lower, this long period of high spend relative to sales could erode the cash position over time and eventually require more equity issuance, which would affect earnings per share.
• Long term gross margin is uncertain. Management expects margin to be variable due to the mix of placements versus instrument sales and inventory related accounting adjustments. If consumables do not scale as anticipated or pricing pressure appears when more competitors and government programs like DARPA PROS advance alternative protein readers, gross margin and overall net margins could remain under pressure.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bullish price target for Quantum-Si is $4.05, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $2.68. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Quantum-Si's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $4.05, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1.5.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $107.2 million, earnings will come to $16.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 79.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.8%.
  
• Given the current share price of $1.26, the analyst price target of $4.05 is 68.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.