Last Update 14 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.73%

ONC: Priority Review And Trial Progress Will Drive Future Upside Momentum

Analysts have nudged their blended price target for BeOne Medicines up by about $3 to roughly $402, citing stronger confidence in the chronic lymphocytic leukemia and solid tumor pipelines, recent Ziihera and Tevimbra data, and repeated quarterly beats that support steadily improving margins despite a slightly higher discount rate.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts point to a broad set of recent price target hikes in the high $380s to low $420s range as evidence that the market is re-rating BeOne Medicines higher on both execution and pipeline visibility. Across recent research, sentiment remains skewed toward upside as the company converts clinical milestones into tangible revenue and earnings power.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the Ziihera and Tevimbra combination data in first line gastroesophageal cancer as a key inflection point that can support premium pricing and expand BeOne's share in solid tumors, underpinning multiple expansion.
Raising peak sales assumptions for sonrotoclax and Brukinsa is seen as evidence that the chronic lymphocytic leukemia and broader B cell malignancy franchises can sustain above consensus revenue growth, supporting higher long term valuation frameworks.
Investors are being told that BeOne's strategy to dominate B cell malignancies, combined with a broad oncology pipeline, positions the company for durable double digit growth and a more resilient earnings base through the back half of the decade.
Upcoming pivotal readouts, including BTK inhibitor data in mantle cell lymphoma and PD 1 and anti HER2 combination data in gastroesophageal cancer, are framed as value creating catalysts that could justify further price target revisions if positive.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that while recent Ziihera data are encouraging, limited disclosure so far creates uncertainty around the ultimate commercial profile and competitive intensity in HER2 positive gastroesophageal cancer, tempering how far valuation can re rate in the near term.
Some remain wary that BeOne's accelerated investment in the solid tumor pipeline could pressure margins if timelines slip or data fail to clearly differentiate from entrenched standards of care.
There is concern that expectations for best in class performance across the full CLL spectrum may now be embedded in current price targets, leaving less room for execution missteps on trials, launch sequencing, or market access.
A few cautious views highlight that the stock's strong run into multiple catalysts increases event risk, as any perceived softness in upcoming ASH updates or pivotal data could lead to multiple compression even if the long term thesis remains intact.

What's in the News

New Phase 1/2 data for sonrotoclax in relapsed or refractory mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia show durable responses and manageable safety, supporting its potential to become the first BCL2 inhibitor approved for R/R MCL in the U.S., with the dataset under FDA Priority Review (Key Developments).
The FDA has accepted BeOne's New Drug Application for sonrotoclax in R/R mantle cell lymphoma, granted Priority Review, and included the drug in Project Orbis, while regulators in China and other regions also review filings for accelerated approval in R/R MCL and CLL/SLL (Key Developments).
Positive top line Phase 3 HERIZON GEA 01 results show Ziihera plus chemotherapy, with or without Tevimbra, significantly improves progression free and overall survival versus trastuzumab plus chemotherapy in first line HER2 positive gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, with data to be presented at a major medical meeting in early 2026 (Key Developments).
BeOne raised its full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of 5.1 billion dollars to 5.3 billion dollars, modestly tightening the outlook higher from the prior 5.0 billion dollars to 5.3 billion dollars range (Key Developments).
BeOne successfully resolved a long running patent dispute with Pharmacyclics after a U.S. patent covering BTK related claims was invalidated and the related district court litigation was dismissed with prejudice (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Risen slightly from approximately $399 to about $402 per share, reflecting modestly higher confidence in long term fundamentals.
Discount Rate: Increased marginally from about 6.74 percent to roughly 6.75 percent, modestly tempering the impact of higher fair value estimates.
Revenue Growth: Edged down slightly from around 17.26 percent to about 17.20 percent, signaling a small reduction in long term growth assumptions.
Net Profit Margin: Improved modestly from roughly 19.36 percent to about 19.41 percent, supporting a somewhat stronger earnings outlook.
Future P/E: Ticked up slightly from approximately 38.4x to about 38.7x, indicating a small expansion in the multiple investors are assumed to pay for forward earnings.

Rapid commercial expansion and innovative therapies drive sustained growth, with a strong product pipeline supporting future revenue and margin improvement.
Operational efficiencies and new product formulations position the company for enhanced profitability and resilience against external cost pressures.
Reliance on a narrow product base, intensifying competition, regulatory pressures, and global supply risks threaten revenue, margins, and long-term profitability.

Catalysts

About BeOne Medicines

An oncology company, engages in discovering and developing various treatments for cancer patients in the United States, China, Europe, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

BeOne's strong revenue growth (41% YoY in Q2; updated full-year guidance of $5–$5.3B) is underpinned by rapid demand expansion for differentiated, best-in-class oncology therapies like BRUKINSA-supported by a growing, aging population and increased global healthcare spending, both of which point to a sustainably expanding addressable market and future revenue growth.
The company's robust pipeline, including multiple late-stage oncology assets (over 20 Phase III trials and >10 proof-of-concept readouts expected in the next 18 months), leverages internal R&D capabilities and the GlueXplorer™ platform to rapidly develop targeted, personalized medicines-well-aligned with the shift toward precision therapeutics, supporting long-term earnings and margin expansion as products commercialize.
BeOne's rapid commercial expansion into new international markets and increasing product launches (with 87% Europe revenue growth and "Rest of World" up 168%, plus >75 countries approved), combined with product mix improvements and new formulations like BRUKINSA's tablet, provide catalysts for incremental revenue and continued gross margin improvement.
Management's focus on operational efficiencies-evidenced by improved gross margins (from 85% to 87%), cost of goods reduction initiatives (tablet formulation), and regionalized supply chains-directly supports future net margin expansion and free cash flow, helping address concerns over sustainability and external cost pressures.
Value inflection points are approaching as multiple pivotal trial readouts and global filings (for sonrotoclax, BTK CDAC, and solid tumor assets) are expected by 2026, lining up with increased adoption and reimbursement potential driven by broader healthcare investment and potential upside to future earnings as breakthrough therapies achieve approval.

BeOne Medicines Earnings and Revenue Growth

BeOne Medicines Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BeOne Medicines's revenue will grow by 18.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -3.9% today to 17.5% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.3 billion (and earnings per share of $10.62) by about September 2028, up from $-177.6 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $2.0 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $147.8 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 44.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from -208.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.45%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BeOne Medicines Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Intensifying competition from both larger pharmaceutical companies and emerging biotechs in the BTK inhibitor and protein degradation therapy space could erode BeOne's market share, forcing more aggressive discounting and pricing concessions; this threatens future revenue growth and profit margins as seen by competition "aggressively discounting" and ongoing focus on maintaining "broad access" in the U.S.
Heavy revenue concentration in BRUKINSA and the CLL franchise exposes BeOne to single-product risk; potential clinical trial setbacks, regulatory delays, or new entrants (such as pirtobrutinib or alternative treatment modalities) could lead to volatile earnings and substantial revenue declines if key assets underperform or lose competitive edge.
Regulatory and policy headwinds-such as U.S. drug price negotiations, tighter controls under Medicare Part D, and potential new tariffs on pharmaceutical imports-could compress net margins and restrict net pricing flexibility in key markets, undermining earnings growth even in the face of volume gains.
High and rising R&D expenditures, coupled with the challenges of late-phase clinical trial execution and a rapidly expanding global pipeline, risk sustained operating expense growth; delays in advancing or commercializing new drugs (as noted in the Phase III trial timing for new assets) could threaten long-term profitability and dampen future free cash flow.
Geopolitical instability and global supply chain risks threaten operational efficiency, particularly with exposure to potential U.S. tariffs and reliance on international manufacturing; unforeseen cost increases or distribution disruptions may impair gross margins and impact the steady flow of life-saving medicines, resulting in downward pressure on net income.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $363.3 for BeOne Medicines based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $563.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $250.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.6 billion, earnings will come to $1.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 44.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
Given the current share price of $336.26, the analyst price target of $363.3 is 7.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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