Last Update30 Jul 25Fair value Increased 71%
Niagen Bioscience's consensus price target was significantly raised from $8.72 to $14.90, reflecting strong analyst confidence driven by successful clinical trial results, robust TruNiagen sales growth, and encouraging pipeline progress.
Analyst Commentary
- Positive clinical trial results published in a peer-reviewed journal demonstrated the safety and significant NAD+ level increase (~140%) from supplementation in patients with Werner syndrome, along with improvements in key clinical markers such as liver, kidney, and arterial health.
- Ongoing and upcoming clinical trials and studies present notable upside potential by potentially expanding Niagen Bioscience's addressable markets.
- Bullish analysts cite sustained strong sales growth of TruNiagen, the company’s core product, as a key driver for higher target prices.
- Immunity from the impact of tariffs protects Niagen Bioscience’s margins and competitiveness compared to peers vulnerable to trade policy fluctuations.
- Encouraging progress in pipeline initiatives, including the rollout of Niagen Plus in clinics, supports confidence in future growth and further validates bullish outlooks.
What's in the News
- Tru Niagen is now offered as an in-room amenity in all Equinox Hotel New York suites, and Niagen IV is available at the hotel's spa through NutriDrip.
- Secured exclusive global rights from Haukeland University Hospital to develop and commercialize nicotinamide riboside (NR) as a pharmaceutical for Parkinson's Disease, with access to robust clinical trial data (including the phase III NOPARK study).
- Published positive clinical results showing Niagen's safety and efficacy in individuals with Werner syndrome, demonstrating significant increases in NAD+ levels and improvement in cardiovascular and skin markers.
- Raised 2025 net sales growth guidance to 20–25% (from approximately 18%) and maintained profitability outlook despite higher administrative expenses, primarily from increased share-based compensation.
- Expanded network to nearly 600 clinics nationwide now offering Niagen IV and injections as pharmaceutical-grade NAD-boosting therapies.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Niagen Bioscience
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly risen from $8.72 to $14.90.
- The Future P/E for Niagen Bioscience has significantly risen from 41.28x to 59.36x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Niagen Bioscience has significantly risen from 13.21% to 14.70%.
Key Takeaways
- Expansion into pharmaceutical-grade Niagen and increased e-commerce performance could drive revenue growth through direct-to-consumer channels and enhanced demand.
- Increased R&D investments and legal settlements might strengthen the balance sheet and lead to potential high-margin pharmaceutical developments.
- Intense competition, regulatory challenges, and rising expenses could pressure ChromaDex's revenue and margins amidst unresolved supply chain and legal issues.
Catalysts
About ChromaDex- Operates as a bioscience company focusing on developing healthy aging products.
- Expansion into the pharmaceutical-grade Niagen ingredient market, including the launch of Niagen IV and injections at clinics, is expected to drive future revenue growth due to increasing demand and the anticipated resolution of supply chain issues.
- Continued e-commerce growth, supported by a significant increase in the Shopify platform's performance and a rising awareness of NAD-boosting products, suggests potential for further revenue growth and improved net margins due to the higher profitability of direct-to-consumer channels.
- Planned increases in R&D investments, alongside a potential investigational drug application for the use of NR in the treatment of ataxia telangiectasia, could lead to future earnings growth if successful pharmaceutical developments result in new, high-margin products.
- The resolution of reversals of royalty obligations and recoveries from legal settlements contribute to a stronger balance sheet, potentially allowing for reinvestment in growth initiatives and enhancing future net income stability.
- The planned company rebranding and name change, aligned with strategic direction, may boost investor interest and market positioning, potentially impacting future revenue by attracting new consumer awareness and business development opportunities.
ChromaDex Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming ChromaDex's revenue will grow by 18.3% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.6% today to 13.2% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $21.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.29) by about March 2028, up from $8.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $24.5 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $19.1 million.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 41.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 71.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Life Sciences industry at 39.0x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.92% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.67%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
ChromaDex Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Significant competition from companies entering the NAD booster market using practices such as patent infringement, false labeling, and poor manufacturing, which could negatively impact ChromaDex's revenue through increased market dilution.
- Supply chain issues, particularly with the pharmaceutical-grade Niagen and the Niagen IV injections, have caused delays and might affect revenue and operational efficiency if not fully resolved.
- Dependence on regulatory approvals poses a risk, as any adverse outcome in regulatory reviews or clinical trials (e.g., with the FDA) could hinder product availability and future sales, impacting earnings.
- Legal issues, such as the ongoing lawsuit regarding NMN regulations, could impact ChromaDex's products if regulatory outcomes do not favor the company's current strategies, potentially affecting revenue streams.
- Increased selling and marketing expenses anticipated in 2025 could pressure net margins if revenue growth does not meet expectations, particularly in the face of intense market competition.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $8.82 for ChromaDex based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $12.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $5.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $164.8 million, earnings will come to $21.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 41.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.7%.
- Given the current share price of $7.87, the analyst price target of $8.82 is 10.8% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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