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Kyverna Bull Case

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yygchongInvested
Community Contributor

Published

November 21 2024

Updated

November 21 2024

Kyverna has the most experienced and proven leadership team to bring CAR-T products to market (Former Kite exectuvies running the top positons and holding board positions) of whom have experience in this new field in scaling manufacturing and marketing these products.

Kyverna also has an ample funding beyond most of its peers with a runway well into 3 years without additional fundraising or milestone payments. That being said they also have a partnership with Gilead of which an additional 300-500 million in cash could be givne to the company if they hit certain milestones in the next year, this seems increasingly likely to happen since the executives (Kite employees) are part of a company acquired by Gilead. Kyverna is also partnered with other institutions like Alphabet via Verily for RND as well as biomarker analysis for clinical and Intellia who have very niche IP that can help develop, analyze and refine Kyvernas drug assets. Partnership with cutting edge organizations such as UPenn and Intellia to develop cost effective and resilient doses, as well as decrease time and effort burden on patient.

Finally Kyverna has the most data so far for CAR-T clinical trials in autoimmune, they are in Phase 2 for most pipelines and have dosed 50+ patients, wheras companies like BMY and Novartis are in Phase 1 and have dosed only around 15 people each. Kyverna also has a high number of pipelines including allogenic versions. They are working on a depleting asset instead of unproven non depleting, or RNA based. They have thier own proprietary platform and manufacturing process which is only 3 days, nearly half the time of industry standard. They also have safer data compared to peers with 0 reported severe side effects wheras BMY had 11/15 inital patients undergo grade 3+ issues, though it also has one case of patient relapse, but in this specific case it was caused by a 50-70% underdosage and truly should not paint a picture of the drug overall.

Currently Kyverna is trading below cash price by a huge margin as they have $321 million cash on hand with 0 debts, while the market cap is almost half that at $175 million. This puts no value on its assets, platform, IP or research, and waives away the huge potential cash injection or aqcuisition potential from Gilead which would respectively add another $350 million to its cash reserves or straight up acquire it for around $1-2 billion in the next 2 years.

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Disclaimer

The user yygchong has a position in NasdaqGS:KYTX. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
US$35.0
92.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
yygchong's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture-111m7m202120222023202420252026202720282029Revenue US$0Earnings US$0
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Current revenue growth rate
70.02%
Biotech revenue growth rate
10.97%