Growing Demand For Natural Therapies Will Open Global Markets

Key Takeaways

• Strategic clinical and regulatory advances position Jaguar Health for rapid market expansion, blockbuster revenue potential, and transformational partnership opportunities in both human and animal health sectors.
  
• Rising demand for natural, plant-based therapies and targeting underserved gastrointestinal conditions underpin sustainable, diversified growth and margin enhancement.
  
• Reliance on a single product, regulatory challenges, persistent losses, and a narrow pipeline threaten sustainable growth and could trigger increased dilution and revenue instability.

Catalysts

A commercial-stage pharmaceuticals company, focuses on developing plant-based prescription medicines for people and animals with gastrointestinal distress.

• Analyst consensus anticipates crofelemer's expedited regulatory approval in rare diseases, but early proof-of-concept data suggests potential approval as soon as the end of 2026 with immediate global market access for MVID and SBS-IF, creating an unprecedented path for near-term blockbuster revenues and long-term orphan exclusivity.
  
• Analysts broadly expect business development partnerships to bring in nondilutive funding, yet the current convergence of multiple late-stage clinical and regulatory milestones puts Jaguar in a prime position to secure large-scale, multi-geography licensing deals-including both human and animal health-that could fundamentally transform earnings power and cash flow.
  
• Jaguar Health is ideally positioned to capitalize on the rapidly increasing global prevalence of chronic gastrointestinal and cancer-related diseases due to an aging population, potentially multiplying its addressable market and supporting sustainable revenue growth well beyond current forecasts.
  
• Surging demand for plant-based, botanical prescriptions and greater adoption of natural therapies among both patients and healthcare providers directly aligns with Jaguar's proprietary portfolio, paving the way for higher patient uptake rates, premium pricing, and enhanced net margins as patient preferences continue to shift.
  
• Accelerated expansion into animal health, leveraging crofelemer's unique mechanism for both general and chemotherapy-induced diarrhea in companion animals, opens the door to entirely new global revenue streams with minimal competition and high unmet need, supporting robust, diversified long-term earnings growth.

Jaguar Health Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Jaguar Health compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Jaguar Health's revenue will grow by 42.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Even the bullish analysts are not forecasting that Jaguar Health will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Jaguar Health's profit margin will increase from -344.2% to the average US Pharmaceuticals industry of 23.2% in 3 years.
• If Jaguar Health's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $8.0 million (and earnings per share of $7.98) by about August 2028, up from $-40.6 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -0.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Pharmaceuticals industry at 19.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.32%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Jaguar Health Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Intensifying regulatory and pricing pressures in the US and EU could limit the ability for Jaguar Health to secure favorable reimbursement or pricing for its products, leading to compressed margins and reduced future profitability.
  
• The company remains heavily dependent on Mytesi for its revenue base, and with only flat year-over-year prescription volume growth and exposure to the risk of decreased prescriptions or insurance coverage, any downturn could threaten revenue stability and leave overall revenue at risk.
  
• Jaguar Health continues to report sizeable net losses, with the net loss attributable to common shareholders increasing to roughly $10.4 million in Q2 2025 compared to $9.5 million in Q2 2024, highlighting a persistent inability to achieve operating profitability and raising the likelihood of further shareholder dilution through future capital raises.
  
• Jaguar's pipeline and expansion efforts are focused on ultra-rare diseases and niche indications, which, despite expedited regulatory pathways, serve extremely small patient populations that may not translate into significant or sustainable revenue growth given demographic and investor preference shifts toward mainstream chronic indications.
  
• The inability to achieve primary endpoints in broader clinical trials-such as the failure to meet the main endpoint in the cancer therapy-related diarrhea (CTD) On-Target trial outside of a breast cancer subgroup-reflects ongoing risks in expanding approved uses for existing drugs, which could result in stalled growth, missed commercialization milestones, and pressure on long-term earnings and net margins.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Jaguar Health is $40.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Jaguar Health's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $16.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $34.4 million, earnings will come to $8.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of $2.1, the bullish analyst price target of $40.0 is 94.8% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.