Last Update 09 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 5.81%

ESPR: Rising Overweight Ratings Will Support Bullish Sentiment Toward Shares

Analysts have nudged their price target for Esperion Therapeutics higher to approximately $6.50 per share from about $6.15, citing supportive Street research, including recent Overweight initiations and target increases. These changes reflect confidence in the company’s longer term earnings multiple despite slightly tempered growth and margin assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts point to recent target increases and Overweight initiations as evidence that expectations for Esperion’s earnings power and execution have improved, even as near term assumptions remain conservative. The Street is increasingly focused on how quickly management can translate its commercial strategy into durable revenue growth.

Across recent notes, the key debate centers on whether current valuation fully reflects the company’s long term growth algorithm and potential for operating leverage as its product portfolio scales.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the move to higher single digit price targets as a signal that the market is underestimating Esperion’s medium term revenue trajectory and margin expansion potential.
They highlight that Overweight ratings are being maintained alongside target increases, reinforcing conviction that execution on commercial rollout and market penetration can support a premium earnings multiple.
Recent research emphasizes a favorable risk reward profile at current levels, arguing that successful delivery on growth milestones could justify further upside to valuation.
Some forecasts now embed more confidence in pipeline contribution and geographic expansion, which, if achieved, could accelerate top line growth beyond prior Street assumptions.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that, despite higher targets, the absolute upside implied is not unlimited. They cite lingering concerns about the pace and consistency of execution.
They note that current projections still assume measured adoption trends. This leaves limited room for operational missteps without putting pressure on the newly raised targets.
There is ongoing scrutiny on whether Esperion can sustain margin improvement in a competitive environment, where increased commercial investment may be required to defend and grow share.
Some remain wary that any delay in meeting revenue milestones or regulatory timelines could compress the valuation multiple, given the recent run in expectations.

What's in the News

Otsuka Pharmaceutical launched NEXLETOL in Japan after receiving National Health Insurance price listing. This triggered a $90 million near term payment to Esperion and positioned the company for additional sales milestones and tiered 15% to 30% royalties on Japanese net sales (Company announcement).
Post hoc analyses from the CLEAR Outcomes trial presented at the 2025 AHA Scientific Sessions showed bempedoic acid monotherapy lowered LDL-C by 20.6% at 6 months and reduced major adverse cardiovascular events by 14% in patients not on background lipid lowering therapy, with a safety profile comparable to placebo (Company announcement/AHA data).
The same CLEAR Outcomes analyses indicated bempedoic acid reduced the risk of venous thromboembolism events by 42%, including a 44% reduction in deep venous thrombosis and 39% reduction in pulmonary embolism among statin-intolerant, high risk patients (Company announcement/AHA data).
Esperion nominated ESP-2001, a highly specific allosteric ACLY inhibitor, as a preclinical development candidate for primary sclerosing cholangitis and plans IND-enabling studies ahead of a first in human trial filing in 2026, targeting a potential blockbuster orphan market with no approved therapies (Company announcement).
The company completed a $75 million follow on equity offering of 30 million common shares at $2.50 per share and was added to the S&P Pharmaceuticals Select Industry Index, expanding its capital base and index investor visibility (Company filings/index announcement).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen modestly to approximately $6.50 per share from about $6.15, reflecting slightly higher long-term valuation expectations.
The discount rate is effectively unchanged at around 6.96%, indicating a stable view of Esperion’s risk profile and cost of capital.
Revenue growth assumptions have edged down slightly to about 20.4% from roughly 20.7%, signaling a marginally more conservative top-line outlook.
Net profit margin expectations have fallen meaningfully to roughly 26.7% from about 31.0%, implying lower anticipated profitability despite supportive revenue drivers.
The future P/E multiple has increased to about 16.3x from roughly 13.1x, suggesting a higher expected earnings multiple underpinning the updated fair value.

Growing adoption of cholesterol therapies, international partnerships, and improved patient access are expected to drive sustained revenue and margin growth.
Extended patent protection and pipeline expansion reduce near-term risks and offer long-term growth opportunities through new treatment indications.
Heavy reliance on a narrow product lineup, growing competitive threats, pricing pressures, and high costs create ongoing risks to market share, profitability, and financial stability.

Catalysts

About Esperion Therapeutics

A pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines for the treatment of patients with elevated low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating adoption of NEXLETOL and NEXLIZET among statin-intolerant patients, supported by digital/direct marketing campaigns and growing awareness, positions Esperion to benefit from broader trends in proactive cholesterol management among younger and older populations-driving sustained prescription volume and revenue growth.
International expansion through partnerships with companies like Daiichi Sankyo (Europe), Otsuka (Japan), HLS (Canada), and others, along with milestone and royalty income from new country launches, is expected to diversify and stabilize revenue streams as global cardiovascular disease incidence rises.
Improving access dynamics-including expanded payer coverage, reductions in prior authorization hurdles, and higher prescriber approval rates-support increased patient access to Esperion's therapies, likely leading to higher net revenues and margin improvement over time as fixed costs are leveraged.
Successful settlements with generic manufacturers extend patent protection for NEXLETOL in the U.S. to 2040, reducing near
and medium-term generic erosion risk and providing a longer runway for top-line growth and sustained profitability.
Pipeline expansion into new, high-value indications (such as primary sclerosing cholangitis) and potential launches of next-generation or combination therapies leverage the global shift toward oral, preventive care treatments, offering upside to future revenue and gross margin potential.

Esperion Therapeutics Earnings and Revenue Growth

Esperion Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Esperion Therapeutics's revenue will grow by 18.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -38.8% today to 23.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $106.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.49) by about September 2028, up from $-104.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $145.1 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-109.6 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Pharmaceuticals industry at 19.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.33% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.22%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Esperion Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Esperion's future growth relies heavily on continued uptake of its flagship products NEXLETOL and NEXLIZET among statin-intolerant patients; given that its pipeline and new indications remain early-stage, this product concentration creates material revenue risk should competition intensify or prescribing trends shift away from their core franchise.
The emergence of novel oral non-statin LDL-lowering competitors (such as oral PCSK9 inhibitors or CETP inhibitors) poses a significant long-term threat; if these competitors deliver positive cardiovascular outcomes and/or secure broader indications (including primary prevention), Esperion's market share and pricing power could erode, directly pressuring both revenue growth and net margins.
Despite notable recent progress, Esperion continues to face drug pricing pressures from payers and potential reductions in Medicare/Medicaid spend; as value-based care contracts and government scrutiny on drug costs escalate, the company may be forced to lower prices or offer larger discounts, impacting profitability and earnings consistency.
While Esperion touts intellectual property settlements extending U.S. market exclusivity to 2040 for NEXLETOL, ongoing and future patent challenges, as well as eventual generic entry internationally, could compress margins and reduce longer-term predictability of cash flows and bottom-line earnings, especially beyond current guidance windows.
Persistent high SG&A costs, modest R&D allocation, and recent achievement of operating income (rather than sustained profitability) leave Esperion reliant on continuous double-digit top-line growth and milestone payments; any setbacks in international launches, regulatory approvals, or slower-than-expected adoption could undermine the transition to sustainable profitability and may necessitate dilutive capital raises to maintain financial flexibility.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $5.8 for Esperion Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $16.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1.6.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $447.8 million, earnings will come to $106.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
Given the current share price of $2.43, the analyst price target of $5.8 is 58.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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