Long-term Secular Trends Will Unlock mRNA And Oncology Breakthroughs

Key Takeaways

• Expansion of the oncology pipeline and diversification into rare diseases and cell therapies creates multiple future revenue streams and reduces reliance on single products.
  
• Investments in AI, rapid vaccine platforms, and global partnerships strengthen operating leverage and stabilize earnings as regulatory acceleration enables faster product launches.
  
• Heavy reliance on declining COVID-19 vaccine sales, rising R&D costs, tough competition, and geopolitical risks threaten BioNTech’s profitability and future revenue diversification.

Catalysts

A biotechnology company, develops and commercializes immunotherapies to treat cancer and infectious diseases in Germany.

• The rapid advancement and expansion of BioNTech’s oncology pipeline, particularly with late-stage, pan-tumor products like BNT327 and mRNA cancer immunotherapies, positions the company for potential breakthroughs in large, underserved cancer indications such as lung and breast cancer, creating multiple, durable future revenue streams as these candidates reach commercialization.
  
• BioNTech’s demonstrated ability to deliver proprietary mRNA technology not only for vaccines but also for personalized and off-the-shelf cancer therapies, supported by its investments in AI-driven drug discovery and cell therapy platforms, is expected to yield operating leverage and improve long-term net margins as pipeline assets are approved and scaled.
  
• Ongoing and deepening government and institutional focus on pandemic preparedness, combined with BioNTech’s proven rapid vaccine development platform and its agreements for stockpiling and service provision, suggests recurring revenue from COVID-19 and infectious disease franchises even as the acute phase of the pandemic recedes, supporting earnings stabilization.
  
• The regulatory acceleration for breakthrough oncology and orphan indications globally, along with BioNTech’s broad clinical development (multiple phase III trials in key cancers), could help significantly shorten the commercial timeline for leading assets, bringing forward high-value product launches and driving faster revenue and earnings growth than currently modeled.
  
• BioNTech’s strategic shift to become a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company—marked by its diversification into multiple oncology assets, rare diseases, cell therapies, and global manufacturing—reduces reliance on single-product revenues, stabilizes cash flow, and sets the foundation for sustained multi-year top-line growth as healthcare systems increase spending on innovative, data-driven medicines.

BioNTech Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on BioNTech compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming BioNTech's revenue will grow by 4.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -27.9% today to 7.9% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach €248.2 million (and earnings per share of €1.03) by about July 2028, up from €-766.0 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 181.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -30.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 16.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.1% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.4%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BioNTech Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• BioNTech’s revenues remain overwhelmingly dependent on COVID-19 vaccines, which are experiencing rapid post-pandemic normalization and falling demand, leading to a substantial decline in top-line revenues with little indication that oncology products will offset this in the near future.
  
• The company is running significant net losses each quarter, driven by sharply rising R&D expenses as multiple oncology pipeline assets remain in early
• to mid-stage clinical development without guaranteed clinical or commercial success, threatening profitability and earnings in the absence of near-term approvals.
  
• Heightened global regulatory scrutiny and potentially tougher approval processes may further delay or complicate the path to market for BioNTech’s novel therapeutics, leading to increased costs and reduced speed-to-market, which would negatively affect return on R&D investment and future margin expansion.
  
• Intensifying competition from larger, more diversified pharmaceutical companies in both the mRNA and immunotherapy spaces threatens BioNTech’s ability to capture meaningful market share or sustain premium pricing, thereby risking further compression of both revenue and net margins over the long term.
  
• Political and societal trends toward healthcare nationalism and the imposition of tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, hinder cross-border collaborations, and potentially restrict market access—BioNTech’s current reliance on China-based manufacturing for key oncology products like BNT323 exposes it to these macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, with direct implications for future revenues and profitability.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for BioNTech is $172.75, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of BioNTech's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $172.75, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $84.75.
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €3.1 billion, earnings will come to €248.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 181.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
• Given the current share price of $111.44, the bullish analyst price target of $172.75 is 35.5% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.