Last Update 16 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 0.98%

BMRN: Shares Will Strengthen As 2025 Guidance Reset Supports Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on BioMarin Pharmaceutical by roughly $1 to reflect a modest reset in long term revenue and margin expectations after Q3’s revenue miss, Voxzogo softness and greater acknowledgment of emerging competitive risks, even though they continue to view the shares as undervalued.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst reactions to BioMarin’s Q3 update reflect a more nuanced view of the company’s medium term growth profile, with reduced price targets but largely constructive ratings as investors recalibrate for competitive dynamics and updated long range guidance.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts maintain Buy or Overweight ratings, arguing that the current share price already discounts more conservative 2027 revenue outcomes, leaving room for upside if execution on the core rare disease portfolio remains solid.
Several notes describe the Q3 print as broadly okay, with Voxzogo weakness offset by a better than expected performance in the base business, reinforcing confidence in the durability of non achondroplasia revenue streams.
Some see the rescinded $4B FY27 target and new $3.6B to $4B range as a realistic reset that aligns more closely with consensus. This may potentially reduce future estimate risk and narrow the gap between Street expectations and management communication.
Bullish analysts highlight the company’s balance sheet capacity and pipeline progress as underappreciated supports for valuation, particularly if competitive threats unfold more slowly than currently feared.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on the decision to pull formal FY27 guidance and lower informal revenue expectations, interpreting it as a meaningful shift from prior management confidence and a signal that competitive and IP risks in achondroplasia are more material than previously acknowledged.
The first down quarter for Voxzogo since launch raises concerns about sustainability of growth in the franchise, with commentary pointing to seasonality and mixed uptake in older US patients as potential sources of ongoing volatility in quarterly trends.
Greater recognition of forthcoming competition from alternative CNP and FGFR3 targeting therapies drives skepticism around the high end of long term revenue scenarios and supports more conservative price targets even where ratings remain positive.
Some analysts argue that, until a direct competitor to Voxzogo is actually on the market and uptake patterns are clearer, investor sentiment is likely to stay constrained. This may limit near term multiple expansion despite the perceived undervaluation.

What's in the News

U.S. FDA accepts BioMarin's Priority Review sBLA for PALYNZIQ to expand treatment to adolescents aged 12 to 17 with phenylketonuria, with a PDUFA target action date of February 28, 2026 (Key Developments)
New clinical data on PALYNZIQ in PKU, including detailed safety and risk management measures such as the REMS program and guidance on managing immune mediated and hypersensitivity reactions, presented at the 15th International Congress of Inborn Errors of Metabolism in Kyoto, Japan (Key Developments)
Company raises 2025 total revenue guidance to a range of $3,150 million to $3,200 million, slightly above the prior outlook of $3,125 million to $3,200 million (Key Developments)
BioMarin removed from the FTSE All World Index, which may affect passive fund ownership and index linked trading flows in the stock (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair value estimate edged down slightly from $89.36 to $88.48 per share, reflecting modestly lower long term expectations.
The discount rate rose marginally from 7.12 percent to about 7.14 percent, indicating a slightly higher required return for the equity.
Revenue growth increased fractionally from 7.17 percent to roughly 7.18 percent, signaling a very small uplift in long term growth assumptions.
The net profit margin was essentially unchanged, dipping only minimally from 29.44 percent to 29.44 percent, implying stable profitability expectations.
The future P/E was reduced slightly from 19.20x to about 19.02x, suggesting a modest compression in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expanding global demand, new therapies, and strategic acquisitions strengthen BioMarin's revenue growth, market reach, and future pipeline potential.
Operational efficiency, disciplined cost management, and regulatory advantages support sustained profitability and long-term margin stability.
Revenue and earnings face mounting risks from escalating competition, pricing pressures, pipeline dependency, heightened expenses, and regulatory uncertainty across key products and markets.

Catalysts

About BioMarin Pharmaceutical

A biotechnology company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for life-threatening rare diseases and medical conditions in the United States, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Strong year-over-year revenue growth driven by increasing global demand, new patient starts, and international expansion of key therapies like VOXZOGO and VIMIZIM aligns with demographic shifts and improved rare disease diagnosis, supporting continued top-line revenue growth.
Accelerated pipeline advancement, including late-stage programs (BMN 333 for achondroplasia, BMN 401 for ENPP1 deficiency, and label expansions for PALYNZIQ), positions BioMarin to capitalize on growing patient pools through earlier and more accurate genetic identification, which should expand future addressable markets and boost revenue.
Recent acquisition of Inozyme and ongoing business development initiatives broaden BioMarin's enzyme therapy portfolio and introduce new high-value therapies targeting severe unmet needs, enhancing diversification and durability of revenue streams over the long term.
Company's operational leverage and disciplined cost management as new products move from R&D to commercial stage-combined with efforts to improve patient adherence and maximize market penetration-are likely to support margin expansion and drive earnings growth.
Supportive regulatory environment for orphan drugs, including accelerated pathways and favorable exclusivity, provides revenue protection and mitigates risks from generic/biosimilar competition, thereby underpinning long-term profitability and net margin stability.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Earnings and Revenue Growth

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BioMarin Pharmaceutical's revenue will grow by 7.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 21.5% today to 29.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.1 billion (and earnings per share of $5.75) by about September 2028, up from $657.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.3 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $758 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 16.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.75% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Intensifying competition in the rare disease and skeletal growth disorder market-such as the development of competing long-acting CNP therapies and potential combination treatments with growth hormone-may limit future revenue growth of BioMarin's key asset VOXZOGO and upcoming agents like BMN 333, raising risks of price erosion and reduced market share. (Likely impacts: revenue, net margins)
Ongoing and anticipated increases in R&D and SG&A expenses related to pipeline advancement, business development (e.g., Inozyme acquisition integration), and commercial expansion could compress operating margins and result in lower future earnings, especially if anticipated product approvals and launches are delayed or unsuccessful. (Likely impacts: net margins, earnings)
Secular pricing pressure and order timing outside the U.S. (noted in revised forward guidance), as well as the backdrop of global reimbursement reform and payer scrutiny for rare disease treatments, may weaken BioMarin's ability to achieve premium pricing and sustainable top-line growth. (Likely impacts: revenue, net margins)
Portfolio concentration risk remains elevated, with current and upcoming revenue disproportionately dependent on a limited number of products (VOXZOGO, PALYNZIQ, VIMIZIM); any issues such as loss of exclusivity, unfavorable intellectual property decisions (e.g., ongoing litigation/IPR&D review, orphan drug extension disputes), or failure to achieve regulatory milestones could result in abrupt revenue declines and higher volatility in earnings. (Likely impacts: revenue, earnings)
Regulatory risks-including the need for successful Phase II/III and pivotal trials, evolving requirements for functional and clinical endpoints (as seen for BMN 401/ENERGY III), and potential delays or negative outcomes in ongoing ITC proceedings, FDA reviews, and international submissions-may increase costs, delay market entry, or limit future approvals, thereby slowing prospective revenue and profit growth. (Likely impacts: revenue, net margins, earnings)

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $96.593 for BioMarin Pharmaceutical based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $122.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $60.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.8 billion, earnings will come to $1.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $55.69, the analyst price target of $96.59 is 42.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

BMRN: Revenue Guidance Revision Will Reveal New Competitive Dynamics Ahead