BMRN: Shares Will Strengthen As 2025 Guidance Reset Supports Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on BioMarin Pharmaceutical by roughly $1 to reflect a modest reset in long term revenue and margin expectations after Q3’s revenue miss, Voxzogo softness and greater acknowledgment of emerging competitive risks, even though they continue to view the shares as undervalued.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst reactions to BioMarin’s Q3 update reflect a more nuanced view of the company’s medium term growth profile, with reduced price targets but largely constructive ratings as investors recalibrate for competitive dynamics and updated long range guidance.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts maintain Buy or Overweight ratings, arguing that the current share price already discounts more conservative 2027 revenue outcomes, leaving room for upside if execution on the core rare disease portfolio remains solid.
• Several notes describe the Q3 print as broadly okay, with Voxzogo weakness offset by a better than expected performance in the base business, reinforcing confidence in the durability of non achondroplasia revenue streams.
• Some see the rescinded $4B FY27 target and new $3.6B to $4B range as a realistic reset that aligns more closely with consensus. This may potentially reduce future estimate risk and narrow the gap between Street expectations and management communication.
• Bullish analysts highlight the company’s balance sheet capacity and pipeline progress as underappreciated supports for valuation, particularly if competitive threats unfold more slowly than currently feared.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts focus on the decision to pull formal FY27 guidance and lower informal revenue expectations, interpreting it as a meaningful shift from prior management confidence and a signal that competitive and IP risks in achondroplasia are more material than previously acknowledged.
• The first down quarter for Voxzogo since launch raises concerns about sustainability of growth in the franchise, with commentary pointing to seasonality and mixed uptake in older US patients as potential sources of ongoing volatility in quarterly trends.
• Greater recognition of forthcoming competition from alternative CNP and FGFR3 targeting therapies drives skepticism around the high end of long term revenue scenarios and supports more conservative price targets even where ratings remain positive.
• Some analysts argue that, until a direct competitor to Voxzogo is actually on the market and uptake patterns are clearer, investor sentiment is likely to stay constrained. This may limit near term multiple expansion despite the perceived undervaluation.

What's in the News

• U.S. FDA accepts BioMarin's Priority Review sBLA for PALYNZIQ to expand treatment to adolescents aged 12 to 17 with phenylketonuria, with a PDUFA target action date of February 28, 2026 (Key Developments)
• New clinical data on PALYNZIQ in PKU, including detailed safety and risk management measures such as the REMS program and guidance on managing immune mediated and hypersensitivity reactions, presented at the 15th International Congress of Inborn Errors of Metabolism in Kyoto, Japan (Key Developments)
• Company raises 2025 total revenue guidance to a range of $3,150 million to $3,200 million, slightly above the prior outlook of $3,125 million to $3,200 million (Key Developments)
• BioMarin removed from the FTSE All World Index, which may affect passive fund ownership and index linked trading flows in the stock (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Fair value estimate edged down slightly from $89.36 to $88.48 per share, reflecting modestly lower long term expectations.
• The discount rate rose marginally from 7.12 percent to about 7.14 percent, indicating a slightly higher required return for the equity.
• Revenue growth increased fractionally from 7.17 percent to roughly 7.18 percent, signaling a very small uplift in long term growth assumptions.
• The net profit margin was essentially unchanged, dipping only minimally from 29.44 percent to 29.44 percent, implying stable profitability expectations.
• The future P/E was reduced slightly from 19.20x to about 19.02x, suggesting a modest compression in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.