BMRN: Shares Will Strengthen As 2025 Guidance and Pipeline Progress Drive Upside

BioMarin Pharmaceutical's analyst price target has been reduced from $90.50 to $89.36. Analysts cite slightly lower growth and profit margin expectations, new competitive pressures, and revised long-term guidance as key drivers for the change.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst updates on BioMarin Pharmaceutical reflect a mix of cautious optimism and emerging concerns, as price targets were widely trimmed following recent company performance and shifting industry dynamics.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts maintain Buy or Overweight ratings and point to a valuation they view as compelling given current Street forecasts and BioMarin's balance sheet strength.
• Despite the trimmed guidance, there is continued confidence in BioMarin's pipeline progress, with new and existing treatments still tracking largely on schedule.
• The company’s guidance for 2025, specifically around Voxzogo, was reiterated. This indicates that core growth drivers remain intact despite recent volatility.
• Long-term revenue expectations, while lowered, still reflect significant upside in certain competitive scenarios. This continues to appeal to investors focused on execution and strategic positioning.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts have highlighted the company’s Q3 revenue miss and have concerns over the new margin and EPS outlook, which now incorporates one-off charges from recent acquisitions.
• Withdrawal of formal FY27 guidance and a more cautious tone from management regarding revenue trajectories have raised questions about BioMarin's ability to meet previous growth ambitions.
• Competition is intensifying, with the threat of both existing and emerging rivals potentially eroding Voxzogo’s market share and contributing to lower execution certainty.
• Some see risk that uptake for core products, especially in more mature or challenging segments of the U.S. market, could be inconsistent. This further complicates growth assumptions embedded in valuation estimates.

What's in the News

• The FDA has accepted BioMarin's supplemental Biologics License Application for PALYNZIQ to expand treatment to adolescents with phenylketonuria (PKU), with a target action date of February 28, 2026 (Key Developments).
• BioMarin revised its fiscal 2025 earnings guidance, raising expected total revenues to a range of $3,150 million to $3,200 million (Key Developments).
• BioMarin was dropped from the FTSE All-World Index (USD) (Key Developments).
• New data presented at the ASBMR Annual Meeting show that treatment with VOXZOGO improved spinal morphology in young children with achondroplasia and maintained efficacy in post-pubertal children (Key Developments).
• Recent trial results further characterized PALYNZIQ's efficacy and safety profile in adolescents, noting both the benefits and the need for ongoing monitoring of hypersensitivity and injection site reactions (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased slightly from $90.50 to $89.36, reflecting more conservative outlooks on growth and profitability.
• Discount Rate has risen marginally, moving from 7.06% to 7.12%. This indicates a modest uptick in perceived investment risk.
• Revenue Growth projection has edged down, shifting from 7.20% to 7.17%. This suggests a slightly more cautious stance on future expansion.
• Net Profit Margin estimate has dipped from 29.50% to 29.44%, reflecting moderated expectations for future profitability.
• Future P/E ratio forecast has fallen modestly from 19.36x to 19.20x, in line with updated earnings outlooks and recent market adjustments.