BMRN: Shares Will Recover As Revenue Guidance Aligns With Market Expectations

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for BioMarin Pharmaceutical, trimming it by $0.10 to $90.50. Recent updates reflect a more cautious outlook on revenue growth and profit margins in light of evolving competitive and regulatory expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst perspectives on BioMarin Pharmaceutical have shifted recently as the company missed some Q3 revenue expectations and adjusted its financial guidance. Below are the key bullish and bearish themes emerging from Street research:

• Bullish analysts view the recent selloff as overdone, noting that shares now trade at a meaningful discount to large-cap peers. This may offer attractive value relative to future growth expectations.
• Despite revenue headwinds, several analysts highlight solid operating leverage and credible long-term revenue growth guidance. The pipeline remains largely on track and management has reiterated guidance on key products for 2025.
• Recent scenario planning and cash reserves position the company to pursue bolt-on acquisitions, such as the completed Inozyme deal. This supports future expansion opportunities.
• While the range for 2027 revenue was revised down to $3.6B to $4B, the lower end aligns with consensus. Most bearish scenarios may already be priced into the stock, according to bullish analysts.

• Bearish analysts are concerned by the company rescinding its formal 2027 guidance, citing increased competition and potential challenges in defending intellectual property in vital areas such as achondroplasia treatments.
• Lowered price targets reflect diminished confidence in near- and medium-term growth. There is caution over the first "down quarter" for Voxzogo since launch, raising questions about future uptake and possible seasonality effects.
• Risks identified include looming competition from other drugs such as oral FGFR inhibitors and potential launches of rival CNP analogs. These could erode BioMarin's market share and pressure margins.
• Some analysts point to the need for clear evidence of successful competitive defense and sustained base business performance before a more constructive outlook can be justified.

What's in the News

• The U.S. FDA accepted BioMarin's supplemental Biologics License Application for PALYNZIQ to expand treatment for phenylketonuria (PKU) to adolescents aged 12-17. A target action date is set for February 28, 2026 (Key Developments).
• BioMarin revised its 2025 earnings guidance and now expects total revenues of $3,150 million to $3,200 million, up from its previous range (Key Developments).
• New data from 14 studies on VOXZOGO were presented, showing anatomical improvements in spinal morphology in young children with achondroplasia and continued efficacy after puberty onset (Key Developments).
• BioMarin was dropped from the FTSE All-World Index (USD) (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target: Reduced slightly by $0.10 to $90.50 per share, reflecting tempered expectations.
• Discount Rate: Risen marginally from 7.01% to 7.06%. This indicates a modest increase in perceived risk or required return.
• Revenue Growth: Declined modestly from 7.32% to 7.20%. This points to slightly reduced forward growth projections.
• Net Profit Margin: Fallen very slightly from 29.58% to 29.50%.
• Future P/E: Increased minimally from 19.24x to 19.36x. This suggests marginally higher valuation multiples on near-term earnings.