Last Update 07 Dec 25

NYT Visual Media Expansion And Steady Subscription Engine Will Shape Returns

Analysts raised their price target on New York Times to $69 from $60, citing a strong quarter that highlighted the company’s ability to sustain subscriber and engagement growth while improving monetization and supporting higher revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts interpret the higher price target as a signal that the company is executing well against its long term strategy, with recent results reinforcing confidence in both the sustainability and profitability of its digital subscription engine.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that consistent outperformance on net subscriber additions and engagement supports a higher valuation multiple, given increased visibility into recurring digital revenue.
Improved monetization across the product portfolio, including bundled offerings, is seen as widening margins over time, which underpins upward revisions to earnings and price targets.
Raised revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 suggest that the current growth trajectory is not viewed as a one off, but as a multi year trend supported by a large addressable audience and pricing power.
The mix shift toward higher value digital products is viewed as reducing cyclicality in advertising, which strengthens the case for a premium relative to traditional media peers.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that the valuation now embeds optimistic assumptions about sustained double digit growth, leaving less margin for error if subscriber momentum slows.
There are concerns that intensified competition for consumer attention could raise customer acquisition costs over time, pressuring unit economics if pricing cannot be increased at the same pace.
Some remain wary that macroeconomic headwinds or a weaker advertising environment could limit upside to the newly raised revenue forecasts, especially beyond 2026.
Execution risk around continued product innovation and cross selling is flagged as a key watch point, since any missteps could challenge the current growth premium reflected in the shares.

What's in the News

New York Times launches a TikTok inspired Watch tab in its flagship app, creating a dedicated vertical video destination that elevates visual journalism as a core storytelling format (ADWEEK).
A swipeable, curated feed of short form clips from across The Times portfolio is being rolled out more broadly after initial testing with a smaller user cohort, signaling a deeper push into mobile native experiences (ADWEEK).
A court dismissed former President Donald Trump's lawsuit against the New York Times for now, ruling the complaint was too long but allowing him to refile with more direct claims (Bloomberg).
Under its February 8, 2023 buyback program, the company repurchased 693,336 shares between July 1, 2025 and October 31, 2025, bringing total repurchases under that authorization to 4,039,745 shares, or 2.47 percent of shares outstanding, for $207 million.

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at approximately $65 per share, indicating no material shift in the fundamental valuation anchor despite the higher market price target.
The Discount Rate is effectively unchanged at 6.96 percent, a negligible difference that does not meaningfully alter the present value of future cash flows.
The Revenue Growth Assumption is effectively flat at about 6.86 percent, indicating that upgraded views on the stock are not driven by a change in the long term top line growth outlook.
The Net Profit Margin Forecast is stable at roughly 15.0 percent, reflecting consistent expectations for long run profitability and operating efficiency.
The Future P/E Multiple remains essentially unchanged at about 25.4 times, suggesting that valuation support comes from steady assumptions rather than a rerating of the earnings multiple.

Digital subscription and bundled offerings growth, supported by proprietary tech and personalization, is boosting recurring revenue, engagement, and operating margins.
Strong demand for reliable journalism, strategic partnerships, and global expansion are driving subscriber growth, diversified revenue, and improved earnings resilience.
Tech-driven shifts in traffic, increased commoditization, and pricing pressures threaten audience growth, revenue stability, and margins, despite ongoing investments in content and product development.

Catalysts

About New York Times

The New York Times Company, together with its subsidiaries, creates, collects, and distributes news and information worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Robust growth in digital subscriptions driven by an expanding portfolio of bundled offerings (news, Cooking, Games, The Athletic) and a focus on direct consumer relationships positions the company to capture more recurring revenue, strengthen ARPU, and reduce churn; this directly supports long-term revenue and margin expansion.
Rising global demand for trusted, high-quality journalism amid increasing misinformation is enabling NYT to increase its international reach and subscription base, paving the way for sustained top-line growth and a larger addressable market.
Strategic partnerships, such as the Amazon AI licensing agreement, are monetizing NYT's intellectual property with new forms of distribution and use cases, providing incremental, diversified revenue streams that bolster earnings resilience and support ongoing free cash flow growth.
Significant investment in digital-first video, audio, and app experiences increases user engagement, audience retention, and cross-selling opportunities, improving both subscriber growth and advertising efficiency-impacting overall revenue and operating leverage.
Effective use of proprietary technology and AI for personalization, content targeting, and advertising yield management is driving higher engagement and monetization, unlocking margin expansion and enabling scalable earnings growth.

New York Times Earnings and Revenue Growth

New York Times Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming New York Times's revenue will grow by 6.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 12.0% today to 15.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $487.8 million (and earnings per share of $3.07) by about September 2028, up from $320.4 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.7x on those 2028 earnings, down from 29.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Media industry at 20.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.69% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

New York Times Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Moves by large tech companies (e.g., AI-generated overviews from Google and ChatGPT) are leading to less referral traffic for publishers, including NYT, raising the risk of audience erosion and limiting top-of-funnel growth, which could impair long-term subscriber growth and future revenue potential.
Increasing adoption of generative AI and content aggregation tools by platforms could contribute to commoditizing news content, undermining the differentiation and perceived value of NYT's journalism, and potentially slowing ARPU growth and threatening subscription and licensing revenues.
The ongoing proliferation of bundled and promotional pricing strategies (e.g., 6 or 12-month intro offers) to drive subscriber conversion may eventually limit NYT's ability to sustainably grow ARPU, and may lead to higher churn after price step-ups, putting pressure on net margins and revenue stability.
NYT's substantial investments in high-quality journalism, new content formats (like video and audio), and product development could result in meaningfully rising operating costs, especially as competition to retain top talent grows, potentially squeezing net margins over the long term.
Dependency on large platform partnerships (such as with Amazon for AI licensing) creates risk that future deal terms may not be as favorable, or that greater consolidation among tech companies will further limit NYT's ability to control distribution or monetize its content, which could negatively affect licensing revenue and overall financial results.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $62.25 for New York Times based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $70.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $52.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.2 billion, earnings will come to $487.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $58.24, the analyst price target of $62.25 is 6.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Trusted Journalism And Digital Subscriptions Will Expand Global Reach