AI Integration And Global Partnerships Will Shape The Future Of Connected TV Advertising

Key Takeaways

• Strategic partnerships and AI integration in connected TV enhance revenue growth, targeting efficiency, and net margins.
  
• International expansion and retail media solutions bolster revenue by diversifying markets and leveraging data-driven insights.
  
• Increased competition and macroeconomic challenges could impact The Trade Desk's market share, revenue growth, and ability to adapt quickly.

Catalysts

Operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally.

• The Trade Desk's strong position in connected TV (CTV) and advancing partnerships with companies like Disney, NBCU, and Netflix are expected to drive significant revenue growth as more advertisers shift their budgets from traditional to digital media.
  
• The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in their operations, especially through their Kokai platform, is likely to improve efficiency and ad targeting, potentially leading to higher net margins.
  
• The development of retail media solutions and integration with major retailers is anticipated to boost advertising revenue by offering data-driven insights and more precise audience targeting.
  
• International expansion, particularly in high-growth regions, is a critical driver for future revenue growth and diversification beyond the North American market.
  
• Advertisers' increasing demand for transparent and efficient supply chains positions The Trade Desk to capture more market share, positively impacting net margins as they focus on value addition over extraction.

Trade Desk Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Trade Desk's revenue will grow by 22.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 13.3% today to 24.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.0 billion (and earnings per share of $1.97) by about December 2027, up from $308.2 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 78.2x on those 2027 earnings, down from 214.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Media industry at 14.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.14% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.21%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Trade Desk Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Changes in interest rates and inflation might create cautious consumer behavior, impacting advertisers' budgets on platforms like The Trade Desk, which could reduce revenue growth.
  
• Increased pressure on CMOs to demonstrate real, data-driven growth could lead to shifts in budgets towards platforms that can prove immediate impact, potentially sidelining longer-term partners like The Trade Desk, affecting market share and earnings.
  
• The decrease in CTV inventory scarcity, as more media companies launch streaming services, could lead to a more competitive pricing environment, impacting advertising revenue margins.
  
• The Trade Desk's need to rapidly adapt to macro environment changes, like the prioritization of AI, could result in execution risks, potentially affecting revenue growth and market expansion.
  
• Google’s regulatory scrutiny and shifts in strategic focus could redefine landscape dynamics, making it challenging for The Trade Desk to effectively compete if Google adjusts its operational strategies, potentially impacting market share and revenue.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $128.83 for Trade Desk based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $155.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $40.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $4.2 billion, earnings will come to $1.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 78.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
• Given the current share price of $134.1, the analyst's price target of $128.83 is 4.1% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.