Last Update 15 Dec 25

THRY: Self-Serve SaaS Pivot Will Drive Medium-Term Upside Despite Downgrade

Analysts have nudged their price target for Thryv Holdings slightly higher to $13.00 from $13.00, reflecting updated modeling assumptions that modestly tweak discount rates and long term profitability, while still highlighting near term growth visibility challenges in the SaaS transition.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates underscore a mixed backdrop for Thryv Holdings, with valuation adjustments reflecting both execution risk in the SaaS pivot and potential upside if the transition stabilizes. Commentary centers on the pace of software growth, visibility into future revenue, and the company’s ability to refine its go to market strategy.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts acknowledge that the current reset in expectations embeds a more conservative growth outlook, which may reduce the risk of further estimate cuts if execution gradually improves.
The transition toward a self serve acquisition model is viewed as a necessary step to unlock more scalable, higher margin SaaS growth over time, supporting potential multiple expansion if adoption accelerates.
Some see the neutral rating stance and lack of a specific target as signaling that much of the near term uncertainty is increasingly reflected in the current share price, leaving room for upside on any signs of reaccelerating bookings.
Improved discipline around capital allocation and a sharper focus on core software offerings are highlighted as positives that could enhance long term profitability and support the recently reaffirmed valuation framework.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts emphasize that the downgrade reflects mounting concern over challenging SaaS growth dynamics, particularly the slowdown that emerged last quarter, which clouds the near term earnings trajectory.
Limited visibility into future software growth, as the company navigates several quarters of commercial transition, is seen as a key overhang for valuation and a constraint on multiple expansion.
Execution risk around building an effective self serve customer acquisition engine raises doubts about how quickly Thryv can replace legacy revenue streams with durable, high quality SaaS growth.
The absence of a clear price target from some coverage is interpreted as a signal that the risk reward profile is currently balanced at best, with insufficient catalysts to justify an outright bullish stance on the shares.

What's in the News

Launched a tailored, AI driven growth marketing solution for home services businesses, featuring a three step framework to boost online discovery, convert leads with CRM and automation, and drive repeat business through reputation management and automated campaigns (Key Developments).
Introduced Thryv Home Services Software with enhanced local listings across more than 50 sites and directories, AI powered review responses, automated follow up messaging, and an AI content generator for always on marketing campaigns (Key Developments).
Expanded integrations with platforms such as ServiceTitan and Jobber, enabling home services businesses to sync Thryv with existing operational tools for smoother workflow and data sharing (Key Developments).
Completed a share repurchase tranche totaling 404,495 shares, or about 0.93 percent of shares, for 5.49 million dollars under the buyback program announced in May 2024 (Key Developments).
Updated guidance for 2025, now expecting fourth quarter SaaS revenue of 118 million dollars to 121 million dollars and full year SaaS revenue of 460 million dollars to 463 million dollars (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate was maintained effectively flat at $13.00 per share, signaling no material change in the modeled intrinsic value.
The Discount Rate rose slightly from 8.18 percent to approximately 8.19 percent, reflecting a modest adjustment in perceived risk or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth remained unchanged at approximately negative 12.43 percent, indicating no updated expectations for top line trajectory in the near term.
Net Profit Margin stayed effectively flat at about 8.44 percent, with only a negligible downward tweak in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E was nudged slightly higher from 16.37x to about 16.38x, implying a marginally higher valuation multiple in the refreshed model.

Expansion into digital SaaS solutions and targeted industry offerings is boosting customer retention, recurring revenue, and profitability through increased multiproduct adoption.
Reduced debt obligations and possible reclassification as a software company position Thryv for higher investment capacity and improved market valuation.
Reliance on upselling amid subscriber losses, managed legacy declines, and integration risks leaves Thryv vulnerable to competition, margin compression, and long-term revenue challenges.

Catalysts

About Thryv Holdings

Provides digital marketing solutions and cloud-based tools to the small-to-medium-sized businesses in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The accelerating shift of SMBs to digital and cloud-based platforms continues to expand Thryv's addressable market for its SaaS solutions, as demonstrated by 25% year-over-year SaaS revenue growth and ongoing print-to-SaaS customer migrations; this bodes well for future revenue growth and higher recurring revenue visibility.
Verticalization initiatives (e.g., Thryv for HVAC) and product ecosystem enhancements (like Workforce Center) are increasing ARPU, customer retention, and cross-sell rates, supporting stronger profitability and higher net margins as more value-added services are adopted by the existing base.
Continued integration of data-driven automation and marketing tools is driving multiproduct adoption and net revenue retention (currently at 103%), likely reducing churn and leading to more durable, predictable earnings growth.
Thryv's progress on deleveraging and upcoming lower amortization requirements unlocks free cash flow, enabling greater investment in R&D, sales channels, marketing, or potential share buybacks-each a potential catalyst for higher earnings and share price re-rating.
The anticipated reclassification of Thryv under the software industry GICS code could improve market visibility and investor discovery, potentially narrowing the valuation gap and catalyzing a re-rating as software peer multiples are applied.

Thryv Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

Thryv Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Thryv Holdings's revenue will decrease by 5.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -11.1% today to 25.6% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $162.6 million (and earnings per share of $3.45) by about September 2028, up from $-83.9 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -6.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Media industry at 20.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 4.5% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.57%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Thryv Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Thryv's continued organic subscriber contraction and flat subscriber growth in 2025 highlight an underlying risk of "churn masking" revenue growth with ARPU gains, which could limit long-term recurring revenue expansion and ultimately pressure future topline growth if new customer acquisition fails to rebound.
The company's legacy Marketing Services (print and traditional directory) revenues are experiencing a managed but persistent multi-year decline, and even with successful SaaS migration, the eventual sunsetting of these pre-existing cash flows by 2028 introduces a potential revenue gap and long-term margin headwind as high-margin legacy profits run off.
Thryv's SaaS growth remains heavily dependent on upselling additional products to existing customers rather than rapid net new client acquisition-this leaves the business acutely exposed to intensifying competition from large cloud and software platforms (e.g., Intuit, Salesforce, Google, ServiceTitan) as well as low-cost disruptors, risking price compression and increased churn that could compress margins.
The Keep acquisition, while generating substantial cost synergies, still faces significant challenges: the acquired business had pre-existing revenue decline trends, is underperforming prior projections, and remains reliant on delayed partner-channel revenue synergies. This heightens the risk that Keep's integration may not yield incremental recurring revenue/ARR, potentially weighing on earnings and net margins if synergies are slower or smaller than expected.
A prolonged period of under-investment in sales/marketing, international expansion, and new channel development as a result of the "pinch point"/deleveraging focus may have allowed competitors to strengthen their market position and brand among SMBs. If investments in go-to-market and product innovation do not ramp swiftly or successfully, the company could face customer acquisition cost (CAC) inflation and be forced into large catch-up spending, which would pressure EBITDA margins and free cash flow.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.75 for Thryv Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $26.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $16.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $634.2 million, earnings will come to $162.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.6%.
Given the current share price of $12.41, the analyst price target of $21.75 is 42.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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