Free Speech Platforms Will Fuel Global Digital Expansion

Key Takeaways

• Growing trust among major advertisers and enterprise clients is strengthening recurring revenue streams and positioning Rumble as a global digital media leader.
  
• Strategic crypto integration and international expansion provide strong momentum in user and transaction growth, supporting faster scalability and profitability.
  
• Regulatory pressures, heavy reliance on a niche user base, fragile ad revenue, rising costs, and tough competition threaten Rumble's growth, profitability, and mainstream appeal.

Catalysts

Operates video sharing platforms and cloud services in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

• Analyst consensus expects Tether's $775 million investment to accelerate growth, but the combination of this liquidity with Rumble's immediately-improving user retention and cost discipline positions Rumble to reach profitability sooner and scale even faster, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue and significant improvements in net margins.
  
• While analysts broadly anticipate crypto wallet and Tether partnership benefits, they may be underestimating the potential for Rumble's wallet to rapidly capture share in global creator payments, especially in underbanked regions, driving explosive international user growth and unlocking new transaction-driven revenue streams that could meaningfully raise long-term earnings.
  
• The recent breakthrough in attracting blue-chip brand advertisers like Netflix, Chevron, and Crypto.com signals a step-change in advertiser trust; as brands increasingly seek out less-censored, scalable digital platforms, Rumble could become an outsized beneficiary of a global advertising shift, significantly accelerating ARPU and total top-line revenue.
  
• With mounting global skepticism of censorship and rising demand for free-speech platforms, Rumble's strong user retention and early-mover advantage outside the US position it to become the default alternative video platform internationally, supporting exponential MAU growth and sustained revenue expansion.
  
• Rumble's cloud partnerships with government clients and sports franchises point to a rapidly maturing enterprise product that, as digital infrastructure demand accelerates worldwide, can drive high-margin recurring B2B revenue and fundamentally improve overall operating margins.

Rumble Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Rumble compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Rumble's revenue will grow by 24.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Even the bullish analysts are not forecasting that Rumble will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Rumble's profit margin will increase from -293.4% to the average US Interactive Media and Services industry of 10.9% in 3 years.
• If Rumble's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $21.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.05) by about August 2028, up from $-297.7 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 490.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -9.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Interactive Media and Services industry at 16.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.01%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Rumble Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Increasing regulatory pressures around misinformation, hate speech, and data privacy could constrain Rumble's platform and user growth, leading to higher compliance costs and impacting future platform engagement, which would likely drive higher operating expenses and compress future net margins.
  
• Rumble's ongoing heavy reliance on a politically polarized user base limits its appeal to mainstream advertisers and viewers, which could hamper efforts to diversify revenue sources and inhibit long-term revenue growth as the platform struggles to attract new ad partners at scale.
  
• Despite some recent wins, Rumble's advertising revenue remains fragile, with just a few brand campaigns executed and the company admitting that broad-based programmatic and AI advertising at scale will take some time, potentially limiting near
• and medium-term improvements to advertising revenue and overall earnings.
  
• The company faces rising costs as it invests to scale cloud infrastructure, localize content for international markets, and develop the Rumble Wallet; if user monetization does not keep pace with this ramp-up in spending, these increased costs could pressure net margins and delay the path to profitability.
  
• Intensifying competition from much larger internet conglomerates and industry leaders in video, cloud, and crypto wallet services threatens Rumble's ability to attract and retain users and advertisers, which could restrict potential revenue growth and reduce the company's long-term earnings potential.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Rumble is $20.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Rumble's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $20.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $196.0 million, earnings will come to $21.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 490.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
• Given the current share price of $8.05, the bullish analyst price target of $20.0 is 59.8% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.