Low GWP Refrigerants And Advanced Materials Will Drive Future Success

Key Takeaways

• Growth is driven by strong demand for low-emission refrigerants and advanced materials, with portfolio optimization elevating margins and earnings quality.
  
• Industry changes, litigation resolution, and operational improvements position Chemours for stronger market share, pricing power, and sustained cash flow stability.
  
• Persistent legal, regulatory, competitive, and ESG challenges threaten Chemours' profitability, revenue growth, operational flexibility, and reputation, exposing it to prolonged financial and market risks.

Catalysts

Provides performance chemicals in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

• Acceleration in regulatory-driven adoption of low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants is boosting sustained demand for Chemours' Opteon franchise-recent strong net sales and high margins signal that continued market share gains and capacity expansions will drive robust revenue and EBITDA growth through and beyond the 2025 and 2026 transition periods.
  
• Secular demand growth for advanced materials tied to electrification, renewables, data centers, and energy storage is generating incremental sales in higher-value applications for APM; ongoing portfolio optimization and pricing improvements in these segments are structurally enhancing net margins and improving earnings quality.
  
• Recent global capacity rationalization among Chinese titanium dioxide (TiO₂) producers, alongside the successful implementation of antidumping duties in major markets, is easing industry overcapacity and enabling Chemours to gain share and strengthen pricing power-supporting volume recovery, margin expansion, and cash flow stability over the next cycle.
  
• Progress in resolving legacy PFAS litigation risk-highlighted by the New Jersey settlement and insurance recoveries-has significantly improved long-term earnings visibility and reduced potential future cash outflows, removing a major overhang and enhancing free cash flow conversion.
  
• Renewed focus on manufacturing excellence and cost optimization, including ramped-up COE initiatives and strategic divestitures of underperforming product lines, is expected to deliver sustainable operating efficiencies, lower unit costs, and structurally higher net margins over the long term.

Chemours Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Chemours's revenue will grow by 3.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -7.2% today to 11.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $726.5 million (and earnings per share of $2.55) by about August 2028, up from $-423.0 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 4.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Chemicals industry at 23.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.29% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.17%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Chemours Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Ongoing legal liabilities and future litigation risk regarding PFAS and other "forever chemicals" remain unresolved, especially with potential settlements pending in North Carolina and West Virginia, which could result in unexpectedly large cash outflows and strain net income and free cash flow over the long term.
  
• Heightened regulatory scrutiny and increasing environmental standards-particularly regarding PFAS-could continue to raise compliance costs or limit Chemours' ability to operate or grow in key geographic markets, putting downward pressure on long-term margins and revenue growth.
  
• Intensifying competition and the possibility of aggressive pricing, particularly in the Titanium Technologies (TiO2) segment (as Chemours pursues volume share gains in "fair trade markets"), could erode pricing power and reduce profitability if rivals respond with counter-pricing or capacity increases-a direct risk to gross margins and consistent earnings growth.
  
• Cyclical and structural demand weakness in key end markets (e.g., TiO2 demand remaining below normal levels and uncertainty about future triggers for a demand recovery) increases the risk of revenue volatility and underutilization of capacity, potentially resulting in softer top-line performance and compressed margins over the long run.
  
• Growing investor and consumer focus on ESG concerns and Chemours' ongoing association with controversial fluorinated chemicals (PFAS) may limit future capital access, deter certain customers, and create reputational risk, which could negatively impact revenue growth and increase the company's cost of capital over time.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $14.889 for Chemours based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $18.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $11.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $6.5 billion, earnings will come to $726.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 4.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of $12.0, the analyst price target of $14.89 is 19.4% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.