Restructuring And Global Focus Will Drive Future Success In Additives And Specialty Ingredients

Key Takeaways

• Portfolio optimization and restructuring initiatives aim to improve margins and reduce revenue volatility, enhancing net margins and earnings.
  
• Growing innovative business lines and strategic share repurchases are set to boost future revenues and earnings.
  
• Challenging market conditions, operational issues, and strategic risks threaten Ashland's revenue and earnings growth amid global economic uncertainty and increased competition.

Catalysts

Provides additives and specialty ingredients in the North and Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and internationally.

• Ashland's portfolio optimization actions, including divesting low-margin and volatile businesses, are expected to improve margins and reduce revenue volatility in fiscal 2025. This can positively impact earnings and net margins by focusing on higher-margin core businesses.
  
• The company's planned $30 million restructuring and $60 million manufacturing productivity initiatives aim to reduce costs and improve efficiency, providing savings that can enhance net margins and overall earnings over the coming years.
  
• Ashland's focus on growing its globalized and innovative business lines, which are experiencing double-digit growth, is expected to support mid-single-digit sales volume increases, positively impacting future revenues and earnings.
  
• The planned sale of the Avoca business is expected to complete Ashland's portfolio transformation, potentially reducing operational risks and improving margin stability, thus positively impacting future earnings.
  
• Share repurchases conducted by Ashland are expected to neutralize the EPS impact of divestitures, providing a catalyst for future EPS growth as the company reallocates capital towards its more profitable business segments.

Ashland Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Ashland's revenue will decrease by 1.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.4% today to 10.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $220.9 million (and earnings per share of $4.96) by about December 2027, up from $199.0 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 23.2x on those 2027 earnings, up from 17.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Chemicals industry at 21.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.84% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.27%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ashland Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Difficult market conditions in China, including potential downturns and increased price competition, could negatively impact revenue, especially in the Specialty Additives segment, as a meaningful downturn in China is anticipated.
  
• Operational challenges in U.S. plants impacted production, posing a risk to stable revenue and net margins if such challenges persist and affect absorption rates.
  
• Ashland's portfolio optimization actions, including divestitures and exits, have led to reduced revenue and earnings, creating potential risks to achieving growth if these impacts aren't offset by new opportunities.
  
• Incremental pricing pressure in various segments could offset volume growth, potentially impacting net margins and overall earnings negatively if price competition intensifies or pricing power weakens.
  
• High levels of uncertainty in the global economy, including geopolitical tensions and structural manufacturing challenges, particularly in Europe, could create volatility and risk to revenue and earnings growth, as demand recovery remains mixed and uncertain.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $94.3 for Ashland based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $105.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $84.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $2.2 billion, earnings will come to $220.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 23.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
• Given the current share price of $73.08, the analyst's price target of $94.3 is 22.5% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.