Rising Rates And New Business Will Boost Future Prospects In Specialty Insurance

Key Takeaways

• Rising interest rates and premium growth bolster revenue, with investments at higher yields and new business contributing to potential further growth.
  
• Crop Risk Services acquisition and alternative investments boost margins and earnings, with efficiencies and promising market conditions enhancing future prospects.
  
• Elevated catastrophe losses and potential reserve inadequacy threaten American Financial Group's future earnings, profitability, and net margins amidst rising interest rates and social inflation concerns.

Catalysts

An insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States.

• Rising interest rates have increased P&C net investment income by 15% year-over-year, suggesting potential for further revenue growth as the company continues to reinvest at higher yields.
  
• Ongoing premium growth driven by new business, increased exposures, and favorable renewal pricing should continue to bolster revenue, with gross and net written premiums up 19% and 14%, respectively, year-over-year.
  
• Continued strong renewal rate increases in social inflation-exposed lines like commercial auto and excess liability indicate potential for improved underwriting margins, assuming loss trends remain favorable.
  
• The Crop Risk Services acquisition and anticipated above-average crop year could enhance earnings with improvements in net margins due to increased efficiency and integration within the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance operations.
  
• Potential for alternative investment portfolio to return to 10% or better annual returns, boosting investment income and driving earnings growth as market conditions for multifamily properties begin to stabilize and transactions increase.

American Financial Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming American Financial Group's revenue will decrease by 0.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 11.3% today to 13.9% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.1 billion (and earnings per share of $13.33) by about December 2027, up from $895.0 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 13.3x on those 2027 earnings, up from 12.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Insurance industry at 12.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.22% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.09%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

American Financial Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Elevated catastrophe losses, particularly from Hurricane Helene, have impacted underwriting margins, which could continue to affect future net margins and earnings.
  
• The impact of rising interest rates, while beneficial for investment income, could increase borrowing costs and negatively affect net margins over time if debt is leveraged.
  
• Lower favorable prior year reserve development in the Property & Casualty (P&C) insurance operations indicates potential reserve inadequacy which could impact future earnings.
  
• There are concerns about the potential impact of social inflation on loss trends, which might require increasing reserves or affect pricing strategies, thereby influencing profitability and net margins.
  
• Adverse development in social inflation-exposed casualty lines and potential adjustments in reserves could impact earnings and profitability forecasts.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $149.0 for American Financial Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $165.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $132.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $8.0 billion, earnings will come to $1.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 13.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.1%.
• Given the current share price of $137.91, the analyst's price target of $149.0 is 7.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.