Behavioral Health Reforms And Demographic Trends Will Expand Healthcare Facilities

Published
21 Feb 25
Updated
22 Aug 25
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
US$30.43
26.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
22 Aug
US$22.44
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1Y
-71.4%
7D
6.2%

Author's Valuation

US$30.4

26.3% undervalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on22 Aug 25
Fair value Decreased 5.33%

Analysts have lowered Acadia Healthcare’s price target to $30.43 amid execution missteps, persistent growth and free cash flow delays, and reduced FY25 guidance, with only limited benefit from recent one-time TN DPP gains. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite continued execution missteps, including missed Q2 consensus estimates and uncertainty surrounding the impact of Medicaid Redeterminations and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Shared on07 Aug 25
Fair value Decreased 23%

Acadia Healthcare Company's fair value has been revised downward, primarily driven by a notable decline in its projected future P/E and an increased discount rate, resulting in a lower consensus price target from $41.86 to $38.21. What's in the News Acadia Healthcare completed a buyback of 1,706,807 shares (1.84% of shares outstanding) for $50.02 million as of June 30, 2025.

Shared on01 May 25
Fair value Decreased 9.30%

Shared on23 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on17 Apr 25
Fair value Decreased 5.62%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased future PE multiple from 19.6x to 17.1x.

Shared on09 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on02 Apr 25
Fair value Decreased 0.79%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on19 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on13 Mar 25
Fair value Increased 18%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 9.0% to 7.4%, decreased profit margin from 9.7% to 7.2% and increased future PE multiple from 17.7x to 19.9x.