Update shared on22 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.33%Analysts have lowered Acadia Healthcare’s price target to $30.43 amid execution missteps, persistent growth and free cash flow delays, and reduced FY25 guidance, with only limited benefit from recent one-time TN DPP gains.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts cite continued execution missteps, including missed Q2 consensus estimates and uncertainty surrounding the impact of Medicaid Redeterminations and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- Bullish analysts acknowledge management’s recent decision to reduce $100M in future expansion capex, but note that deeper, more substantive changes to the growth model are required.
- Slower-than-expected EBITDA growth and the delay in generating positive free cash flow, projected to occur no earlier than Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 respectively, are dampening analyst sentiment.
- Lower Medicaid volume, facility-specific pressures, and a downward revision of FY25 revenues and adjusted EBITDA guidance contribute to analysts’ more cautious outlooks.
- Recognition of Tennessee Direct Provider Payment (TN DPP) benefits boosted recent results, but analysts view these as non-recurring, limiting their impact on long-term fundamentals.
What's in the News
- CFO Heather Dixon will step down effective August 15, with Timothy Sides appointed interim CFO while a nationwide search is conducted for a permanent replacement.
- The company repurchased 103,939 shares for $3.14 million from April to June, completing a total buyback of 1,706,807 shares for $50.02 million.
- 2025 revenue guidance updated to $3.3 billion to $3.35 billion.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Acadia Healthcare Company
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $32.14 to $30.43.
- The Future P/E for Acadia Healthcare Company has fallen slightly from 11.09x to 10.54x.
- The Discount Rate for Acadia Healthcare Company remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 7.64% to 7.52%.
Disclaimer
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