Market Shifts And Risk Premiums Will Influence Earnings Outlook And Value Preservation

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

15 Sep 24

Updated

27 Nov 25

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-21.7%

7D

4.7%

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1Y

-21.7%

7D

4.7%

You can edit this narrative until Nov 28 5:05 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$10.721.2% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 27 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.93%

AGRO: Strong Buyback Will Lay Groundwork for Resilient Future Performance

Adecoagro's analyst price target was reduced slightly from $10.80 to $10.70, reflecting cautious sentiment among analysts following recent adjustments to revenue growth forecasts and ongoing margin concerns. Analyst Commentary Following recent adjustments to price targets, analysts have provided mixed commentary highlighting both potential strengths and ongoing challenges for Adecoagro.

Shared on 07 Nov 25

AGRO: Diversified Operations Will Drive Resilience Despite Margin Pressures

Analysts have lowered their price target for Adecoagro to $8.50 from $9.90. They cite slightly higher discount rates and weaker profit margin expectations.

Shared on 23 Oct 25

Analysts have revised Adecoagro’s price target downward to $8.50 from $9.90. They cite updated market assessments and recent firm performance as influencing factors.

Shared on 09 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 2.35%

Adecoagro's analyst price targets have been revised downward by roughly $1. Analysts cite weaker sugarcane crop prospects as well as expectations for a soft second quarter.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Decreased 18%

Shared on 23 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 5.92%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from -1.0% to -3.4%, decreased profit margin from 8.8% to 7.5% and increased future PE multiple from 10.5x to 13.6x.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 10%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 1.1% to -0.9%, increased profit margin from 7.0% to 8.7% and decreased future PE multiple from 13.8x to 10.6x.

Shared on 11 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 17%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased future PE multiple from 18.2x to 13.8x.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$10.7

21.2% undervalued

Future estimation in

% p.a.

0

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

-0.88%

Food revenue growth rate

0.42%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

7.46%

Calculation

US$85.12m

Earnings '28

x

15.64x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$1.33b

Market Cap '28

US$1.33b

Market Cap '28

/

100.18m

No. shares '28

=

US$13.28

Share Price '28

US$13.28 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 7.54% p.a.

=

US$10.68

Fair Value '25