Accelerating Decarbonization Will Erode US Refining Prospects

Analyst Low Target compiles bearish analysts opinions to create narratives which represent one standard deviation below the consensus price target, using forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls.

Published

02 May 25

Updated

23 Jun 26

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Shared on 23 Jun 26

PBF: Elevated Crack Spreads And Margin Assumptions Will Pressure Future Shareholder Returns

Wall Street is lifting its targets for PBF Energy as fuel markets stay tight, but many analysts still won’t give it a positive rating because today’s strong refining conditions may not last. The key worry is that if oil prices or refining profits cool off, the stock may have little room for mistakes—especially with mixed signals on how much cash gets returned to shareholders.

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Shared on 05 Jun 26

Fair value Increased 7.14%

PBF: Elevated Oil And Crack Assumptions Will Pressure Future Shareholder Returns

Analysts lift their views as oil prices and refinery profits stay high, but many still hesitate because the stock may already be pricing in most of the good news. A refinery incident and big share sale add fresh uncertainty just as the company needs steady operations to back up these expectations.

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Shared on 29 Apr 26

Fair value Increased 3.70%

PBF: Higher Oil Price Assumptions Will Pressure Margins And Future Shareholder Returns

The analyst fair value estimate for PBF Energy has increased from $27.00 to $28.00 as analysts factor in a series of recent price target revisions across the Street and modest updates to assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, and profit margin. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on PBF Energy shows a mix of higher and lower price targets, with several firms reaffirming Neutral ratings even as their targets move.

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Shared on 15 Apr 26

Fair value Increased 23%

PBF: Higher Oil Price Assumptions Will Pressure Refining Margins And Future Earnings

Analysts have raised the implied fair value estimate for PBF Energy to $27 from $22. This reflects recent increases in published price targets and a shift toward higher assumed future P/E multiples, even as they incorporate expectations for a softer revenue outlook and slimmer profit margins.

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Shared on 17 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 16%

PBF: Regional Refining Margin Risks Will Pressure Future Earnings Power

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for PBF Energy from $19.00 to $22.00 per share as they incorporate updated expectations for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions informed by recent price target increases from the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around PBF Energy has centered on how changing crude trade flows and regional refining balances could affect the company’s earnings power and valuation.

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Shared on 08 May 25

Fair value Increased 56%

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Accelerating Decarbonization Will Erode US Refining Prospects

PBF: Elevated Crack Spreads And Margin Assumptions Will Pressure Future Shareholder Returns

PBF: Elevated Oil And Crack Assumptions Will Pressure Future Shareholder Returns

PBF: Higher Oil Price Assumptions Will Pressure Margins And Future Shareholder Returns

PBF: Higher Oil Price Assumptions Will Pressure Refining Margins And Future Earnings

PBF: Regional Refining Margin Risks Will Pressure Future Earnings Power

Shared on 08 May 25

Fair Value vs Share Price

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